MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs Cubs (Saturday, July 1)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs Cubs (Saturday, July 1) article feature image

Photo by Peter Aiken/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Naylor & Jose Ramirez (Guardians).

Guardians vs. Cubs Odds

Saturday, July 1
7:15 p.m. ET
Guardians Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-108 / -112
Cubs Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-108 / -112
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

Chicago put its post-London losing streak to rest on Friday night with a 10-1 stomping of Cleveland in the series opener.

The Cubs are -134 favorites on Saturday at Wrigley Field with Marcus Stroman on the mound. Stroman owns a 2.47 ERA across 102 innings pitched this season.

Cleveland will start Tanner Bibee, who has pitched to a 3.79 ERA in 59 1/3 innings in his rookie season.

Continue reading for my Guardians vs. Cubs interleague series preview, which includes a pick on the moneyline.

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Cleveland Guardians

Bibee has been legitimately solid in the first two months of his MLB career. He owns an xERA of 3.64, which has come without any overly alarming metrics, aside from a notably low chase rate.

An ERA right around league average should be sustainable moving forward.

Bibee owns a Stuff+ rating of 99, which includes an elite 110 rating on his slider. His Location+ rating is steady as well at 98.

The Guardians put together a dominant offensive month in June. They hit to a 10th-best wRC+ of 110 and a .328 wOBA. Jose Ramirez led the way with a .630 slugging rate and has snapped into top form after a slow start.

The Guardians' lineup should be at full health for this matchup.

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Chicago Cubs

The way things are going for the Cubs — who are sitting five games back in an awful NL Central division — Stroman might just be building his profile to be dealt, yet again, prior to the deadline.

To this point, he's made a pretty dominant case, and his recent results — in terms of actual runs allowed — have been fantastic, aside from a London game played in immensely hitter friendly conditions.

Over Stroman's last 45 2/3 innings (eight starts), he's pitched to a sterling ERA of 1.58 with a WHIP of 1.11.

Stroman's arsenal doesn't rate as well as you'd expect for a guy nearly leading the NL in ERA. His Stuff+ comes in at 102 and his Location+ is at 100.

However, batters have grounded out 59.3% of the time and have hit only .225 on pitches inside the strike zone, which is only worse than Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Wells in 2023.

Those have both been key reasons to his success and explanations as to why Stroman is again outperforming expected rates this season. Even if that's true though, his 3.80 xERA is well over a full run higher than his actual mark this season, and he should be due to run a little worse on BABIP.

His .250 BABIP this season is significantly better than his career average of .297, and it's hard to see where he's pitching that markedly better.

Offensively, the Cubs remained in modest form throughout June, with a 92 wRC+ and .307 wOBA. They have hit to a wRC+ of 98 versus right-handed pitching this season.

Seiya Suzuki missed a third straight game yesterday, but was able to take batting practice. It's possible he plays in this contest, but it appears unlikely for the time being.

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Guardians vs. Cubs Betting Pick

Cleveland owns better offensive splits than Chicago over the last 30 days, an elite bullpen and has fielded quite well.

If you're making a case about why the Cubs are deserving of a -132 price tag in this matchup, it revolves around Stroman being significantly better than Bibee.

It seems fair to say that moving forward Stroman won't outperform Bibee that badly, and therefore, +112 becomes a good number to back the Guardians, who have edges elsewhere.

I like the Guardians on the full game moneyline, and I would play it to +105.

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