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Guardians vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Kershaw and Los Angeles to Win Big (Friday, June 17)

Guardians vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Expect Kershaw and Los Angeles to Win Big (Friday, June 17) article feature image
Credit:

Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw

  • The Dodgers are home favorites on Friday against the surging Guardians.
  • Cleveland has been hot of late, but can they continue their success against a step up in competition?
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Guardians vs. Dodgers Odds

Guardians Odds +220
Dodgers Odds -275
Over/Under 8 (-110 / -110)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Guardians are one of the hottest teams in baseball, but their luck may run out in Los Angeles, where they’re taking on a talented Dodgers team that is waiting for its luck to turn around. With an incredibly lopsided pitching matchup, dare we lay runs with the home team? Let’s take a closer look at this one.

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Can the Guardians Win Against a Step Up in Competition?

Oh brother, not these guys again.

The Guardians have spring-boarded back into relevancy with an insane winning spree, taking seven of the last eight and losing just three times since May 29. During that time, they’ve allowed more than three runs just five times, which is pretty ridiculous.

While there’s no doubting the Guardians are doing a good job of completing the task in front of them, we should pump the brakes before declaring them some sort of juggernaut. After all, the teams they have had to face are the Tigers, Royals, Orioles, Rangers, A’s and Rockies. None of those clubs are particularly good, and they’re certainly not even close to the Dodgers.

You know who’s not particularly good? Zach Plesac. In fact, I’d argue he’s very bad — maybe the worst pitcher in baseball. The right-hander owns a pretty poor 4.70 ERA, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg. His 16.3% Strikeout Rate is a tough look considering his alarming 11.3% Barrel Rate and .449 xwOBA on contact. His 6.05 xERA ranks in the bottom 6% of the league, and every one of his predictive metrics is in that bottom 6%.


Kershaw and the Dodgers Looking for Momentum

It’s been a struggle for the Dodgers of late. They’ve posted just a 78 wRC+ over the last week of play, ranking 27th in baseball. They’ve lost nine of 15 all in all and have dropped three of five in the past seven days.

With that said, it’s not as if this offense has done much wrong. They’re still rocking a low 20.7% Strikeout Rate over the past week with a solid 9.5% Walk Rate. Their 12.8% Barrel Rate during that span ranks second in the league. L.A. is fourth in Contact Rate, hitting the ball on 79.9% of swings. This team has been down on its luck, and a turnaround is surely coming.

The ask certainly shouldn’t be too high here for the offense with Clayton Kershaw starting this game. The southpaw has registered a solid 2.12 ERA this season in six starts, humming along as always. His Strikeout Rate is still solid at 28.3%, and his Hard-Hit Rate has plummeted to 32.9% after a run of four years at 34% or higher. He’s only had two outings where he has allowed more than one run, and just one where he allowed more than two.

Guardians-Dodgers Pick

The Guardians should come crashing back down to Earth on Friday with a real team opposite them. Kershaw has once again been one of the best in the game and should shut down an offense ranked 25th in wRC+ against left-handers.

On top of that, we have arguably the best lineup in baseball taking on one of the very worst starters around. This Dodgers lineup should absolutely torch Plesac given the amount of solid contact they’ve made over the last week.

Regression will hit both teams in different ways, and the Dodgers may win this one by double digits.

Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-130)

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