For two decades, savvy MLB bettors have hunted value in the shadows, avoiding public favorites and scanning for opportunity where few dared to look: the underdog.
Specifically, the home underdog. And while every so often these contrarian plays spark a profitable stretch, nothing in the last 20 years compares to what unfolded in July 2025.
It wasn’t just a hot streak. It was historic.
Throughout the month, MLB home underdogs defied the odds and oddsmakers by going 68-55, good for a 55.3% win rate, the highest such mark for any month dating back to 2005. It wasn’t just that they were winning more often, it was that bettors who backed them cashed in big.
A $100 bettor riding every home underdog in July would’ve pocketed $2,536 in profits, an impressive 20.6% return on investment (ROI). That kind of performance doesn’t just stand out, it ranks among the best ever recorded. In fact, the only month even close in the modern betting era was July 2016, when home dogs went 61-50 (55%), but with slightly juicier payouts that generated a 26.6% ROI and $2,954 in profits.
But while 2016’s surge felt like an outlier, 2025 has unfolded with a different feel.
This isn’t a one-off, it’s been a pattern. Through the first five months of the season, home underdogs have turned a profit in four, with only June being a losing month.
Cumulatively, the trend has produced a +4.1% ROI and $2,484 in earnings for $100 bettors, already shaping up to be the most profitable full season for home dogs since 2010.
What’s been particularly remarkable about 2025’s surge is how widespread it’s been. Of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball, 20 have returned at least even money on the moneyline when cast as a home dog.
Strip out one glaring outlier, the Colorado Rockies, who are a brutal 13-35 in those situations, and the rest of the league’s home dogs are nearly breakeven, just four games under .500 for the season.
Still, not all home dogs have barked equally. Dig into the numbers, and a clear trend emerges: the real edge has come from shorter-priced underdogs.
While home teams listed at +150 or longer are a dismal 30-62, losing bettors $1,009 over the season, the underdogs priced below that threshold have been a goldmine. Those shorter dogs (under +150) are a surprising 246-240, seven games above .500, delivering an eye-popping 7.2% ROI.
This is more than a statistical anomaly, it’s a signal. As oddsmakers fine-tune their lines and the public continues to pound road favorites, there’s a sliver of inefficiency for those willing to go against the grain.
The 2025 season is proving that not only can home dogs win, they can win consistently, and with the right price sensitivity, they can win profitably.
As the calendar flips to August, bettors and bookmakers alike are watching closely. Will the edge continue? Will public perception shift? Or will this be remembered as the high-water mark, the summer when the home dogs took over?
Whatever happens next, July 2025 has already secured its place in MLB betting lore. For those who believed, and bet, it was the month of the home underdog.
And it paid.
