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KBO & NPB Picks & Betting Odds (Friday, June 26): Will Dinos Extend KBO Lead Over Bears?

KBO & NPB Picks & Betting Odds (Friday, June 26): Will Dinos Extend KBO Lead Over Bears? article feature image

Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images. Pictured: Jae-hak Lee

All 26 CPBL, KBO, and NPB teams will be back in action on Friday, for what amounts to a full baseball betting slate — one month out from Major League Baseball’s expected opening weekend.

I generally don’t bet on MLB spring training, and though I’ll be itching to find some edges on major league games once we get into the regular season, I’ll continue to cover the action in these three incredibly entertaining Asian baseball organizations for the foreseeable future.

Even after the MLB returns, ESPN will continue to carry KBO games in the morning, and CPBL games should remain free on various Twitter channels.

Breakfast baseball has become a welcome routine, and I hope that you’ll continue to follow these leagues as they head toward the playoffs, and allow fans back into the stadiums; nothing enhances the game of baseball like a KBO crowd.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 73-89 (-8.69 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 38-31 (+10.31 Units)
  • NPB Year to Date: 8-4 (+4.63 units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model

Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears

  • Dinos moneyline: -148
  • Bears moneyline: +115
  • Over/under:  10.5
  • Time: 5:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: NC Dinos (Jae-hak Lee) vs. Doosan Bears (Jong-gi Park) 

The Dinos (30-13) have a 4-2 lead in the season series against the Bears (27-17, 3.5 GB), who welcomed the return of slugger Jae-il Oh (148 wRC+ in 2019) on Thursday.

Friday’s pitching matchup to begin this crucial three-game series pits Jae-hak Lee (4.39 FIP) for the Dinos against Jong-gi Park (3.85) for the Bears.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

Lee allowed eight hits and four runs (3 BB, 1 K) against the Bears, his old club, on May 21.

He has one of the best changeups in the KBO, and it will need to be on point against the Bears’ mostly left-handed lineup:

Lee Jae-hak, Changeup release (front view)

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 27, 2020

There is not much else to his arsenal, however. And Lee is 0-4 against the Bears in his past seven starts. Their offense will likely be able to lay off the changeup and sit on his fastball by their second time through the order.

Jong-gi Park makes his third start of the season, after dominating the Twins (6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K) on June 20.

He has spent several years in the Bears’ minors but has looked sharp in his first two 2020 appearances, displaying a fastball (88 mph), slider (82 mph) and curveball (69 mph) combination.

He tries to generate whiffs with the slider and weak contact with the curveball, but there is a lot of separation between the pitches and Park will need to thrive on command and weak contact after getting ahead in counts.

I project the Bears as 52.5% favorites for Friday and I would bet the Bears to +106 (implied 48.5%), which is a 4% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Dinos at +125 (implied 44.5%) or better, which is a 3% edge compared to my projection (47.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I project the total at 9.82 runs and would bet Over 9 (-105) or Under 11 (-111) at a 3% edge. 

See all of Friday’s KBO, NPB, and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Dinos-Bears game, and Friday’s other baseball games. 

Nc Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Picks

  • Doosan Bears +108 (1 unit)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full KBO Betting Card for June 26

  • Doosan Bears +108 (1 unit)
  • Hanwha Eagles +128 (1 unit)
  • KIA Tigers +103 (1 unit)
  • Lotte Giants -146 (1 unit)
  • SK Wyverns +160 (1 unit)

KBO Year to Date: 73-87 (-8.69 Units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 26

  • CTBC Brothers +107 (1 unit)
  • Monkeys / Lions, Over 11.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 38-31 (+10.31 Units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full NPB Betting Card for June 26

  • Chunichi Dragons +120 (1 unit)
  • Seibu Lions -115 (1 unit)
  • Yakult Swallows +165 (1 unit)

NPB Year to Date: 8-4 (+4.63 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Zerillo’s Baseball Model, June 26

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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