The Boston Red Sox host the Atlanta Braves on May 27, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on BravesVsn.
The Braves are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Braves vs Red Sox Prediction
- Braves vs Red Sox Pick: Braves Moneyline (-115, FanDuel)
My Braves vs Red Sox best bet is on the moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Red Sox Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -175 | 8.5 -101o / -125u | -116 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +145 | 8.5 -101o / -125u | -102 |
- Braves vs Red Sox moneyline: Braves -116, Red Sox -102
- Braves vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-101o / -125u)
- Braves vs Red Sox spread: Braves -1.5 (+145), Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
Braves vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) | Stat | LHP Connelly Early (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 1.97/2.99 | ERA / xERA | 3.33/4.68 |
| 3.28/3.72 | FIP / xFIP | 4.73/4.22 |
| 14.3% | K-BB% | 13.7% |
| 45.2% | GB% | 39.3% |
| .227 | BABIP | .252 |
| 86 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 104 | Location+ | 99 |
Braves vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Elder a Surprise for Atlanta
After taking two of three from the Red Sox on "Rivalry Weekend", the Braves held on for a 7-6 victory in the series opener from Fenway last night. Matt Olson, no stranger to home runs on "Dinger Tuesday", got the Braves on the board with his 15th home run of the year. He had been in a bit of a drought as he entered the game with a .422 OPS over the last two weeks, and it was his first home run since May 10th.
However, Michael Harris II led the way, going 4-for-4 with two runs scored and three runs batted in. His two-run home run in the eighth inning was his 12th of the year and gave the Braves much-needed insurance after the Red Sox threatened and scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. Harris remains an elite defender with four outs above average in center field, but he is on pace for a career year at the plate with an .864 OPS, and he is nine away from his career high in home runs.
The Braves are in the top three in the MLB in runs scored, home runs, and OPS as a team. That is despite being down their top two catchers, Sean Murphy and emerging star Drake Baldwin, who are on the IL, and the team waiting on Ronald Acuna Jr. to return to MVP form, or at least to last year, when he posted 3.1 WAR in 95 games. He currently has just two home runs and a .704 OPS.
The Braves got five quality innings from Spencer Strider last night, who struck five and earned his third win. The Braves lead the MLB in team ERA and opposing batting average allowed. Chris Sale will start Thursday's game and continues to stand out among an increasingly growing list of NL Cy Young contenders.
However, the biggest surprise in their rotation has been Bryce Elder.
After consecutive seasons with an ERA north of 5.00, Elder is 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 68 and 2/3 innings. In his career, Elder's ERA has never really aligned with his xERA and this time, his expected ERA is a run (2.98) higher. However, he has posted league-average strikeouts, above-average chase rates, and ranks in the 90th percentile in limiting barrels.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Early a Potential Weakness for Boston?
The Red Sox tallied six runs last night, which was a bit of a rarity as they average 3.8 per game. The Red Sox rank near the bottom of the league in xBA, xSLG, home runs, and OPS. However, that was not difficult to foresee given their moves over the last year.
After trading Rafael Devers last June, the team also failed to re-sign Alex Bregman while missing on other free agent targets like Pete Alonso, who they now have to face in the AL East.
With Devers and Bregman both out of the door, the team acquired Caleb Durbin from the Brewers for Kyle Harrison, who they got in the Devers trade. Durbin showed promise in Milwaukee, but he has been among the worst-qualified hitters this postseason.
The team fired manager Alex Cora in April, but they have still been last in MLB in runs scored since then. The moves also placed added pressure on Roman Anthony to carry the offense at 22 years old, and that also has not come to fruition. Anthony is hitting .229 with one home run in 30 games and is currently on the IL.
Last year's AL Cy Young Award runner-up, Garrett Crochet, is also on the IL, but the Red Sox are still 10th in team ERA. Payton Tolle will get the start on Thursday, setting up an electric matchup with Sale. They will turn to another young left-hander with Connelly Early getting the start tonight.
Early has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts this season. One of those outings was against the Braves 12 days ago. Early has a 3.33 ERA, but 4.68 xERA this season. Early also ranks in the 27th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.
It will be interesting to see if the Braves can take advantage of that as they get a second look at him tonight.
Braves vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Last night's win snapped a nine-game stretch in which these teams had alternated wins in this series. The Braves have now won six of the last 10 meetings and will go for a third straight victory over the Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox may prefer if this game were played in Atlanta, as they are just 8-18 at home while the Braves are 20-8 on the road.
On the moneyline, the Braves have been the third-most profitable to back while the Red Sox are the fourth-least profitable to back this season. Both Elder and Early have performed slightly above expectations this season, and both teams will see them for a second time.
However, the Braves' offense has been much better this season, and I like their bats to lead the way tonight.
Pick: Braves Moneyline (-115, FanDuel)
