KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Sunday, May 31): Expect A Pitcher’s Duel In Giants vs. Bears?


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The NC Dinos (17-5) finally dropped a series, losing their first two of three games this weekend against the Samsung Lions (10-13) — including Saturday’s 9-1 loss. Now the Dinos will hope to avoid getting swept on Sunday before Monday’s off-day.

The runs returned on Saturday, amid a low-scoring week, with an average of 12.8 runs per game, as four of the five games went over their listed total. But with many top of the rotation arms back in action on Sunday, scoring should be significantly lower.

So where can we find value as star pitchers such as Tyler Wilson, Drew Gagnon, Chris Flexen and Chang-mo Koo take to the mound across the KBO?

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 30-38 (-2.63 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 29-22 (+9.29 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model

Odds as of 3 p.m. ET on Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears

  • Giants moneyline: +143
  • Bears moneyline: -182
  • Over/under: 8.5
  • Time: 1:00 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: Lotte Giants (Dan Straily) vs. Doosan Bears (Chris Flexen)

The Lotte Giants should have defeated the Doosan Bears but blew a three-run lead on Friday, then a ninth-inning lead on Saturday. The Giants will either be reeling or extremely hungry for a win on Sunday as recent KBO arrivals Dan Straily (3.74 FIP) and Chris Flexen (3.64 FIP) take the hill.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

Flexen walked four batters in his last outing, but he has averaged a 59.2 game score through his first four KBO outings, while looking uberconfident at a lower-level of baseball:

Flexen averaged 94.5 mph out of the Mets bullpen last season. He’s blown away hitters with high fastballs, wipeout sliders (88 mph) and good off-speed (84 mph) stuff in the KBO — though none of those offerings returned an above-average pitch value at the MLB level, where Flexen pitched to a 6.7 xFIP.

Dan Straily has been similarly dominant in the KBO, after a long run (140 starts, 4.94 xFIP) with multiple MLB clubs.

His fastball-slider-changeup combination has proven extremely effective against KBO competition:

I projected the Bears as a 64.4% favorite (implied odds of -181) for Sunday and I would bet the Bears up to -156 (implied 60.4%) a 3.5% edge.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Giants at +217 (implied 31.6%) or better, which is a 4% edge compared to my projection (35.6%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I projected the total at 8.53 runs and would look to bet Over 7.5 (-110), Under 9.5 (-105), or Under 10 (-116), each at around a 4% edge.

Lotte Giants vs. Doosan Bears Picks

  • Bears -155 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Around the CPBL and KBO

See all of Saturday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on Saturday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

Full KBO Betting Card for May 31

  • Hanwha Eagles / SK Wyverns, Under 9.5 (-115, 0.5 units)
  • Doosan Bears -155 (0.5 units)
  • KT Wiz +105 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

  • KBO Year to Date: 30-38 (-2.63 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for May 31

  • Fubon Guardians +141 (1 unit)
  • Rakuten Monkeys / Uni-Lions, Over 10.5 (-112, 0.5 units)
  • Uni-Lions +240 (0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

  • CPBL Year to Date: 29-22 (+9.29 Units)

Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, May 31

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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