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Mariners vs. Mets Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Bats to Eclipse Total (May 15)

Mariners vs. Mets Odds, Pick & Preview: Back the Bats to Eclipse Total (May 15) article feature image

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso

  • The New York Mets will look for another series win against the Seattle Mariners on Sunday afternoon.
  • The Mets have been playing well, but our expert is targeting a total rather than a side in this matchup.
  • Nick Martin shares his best bet below.

Mariners vs. Mets Odds

Mariners Odds+115
Mets Odds-140
Time1:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Mets have yet to lose a series in the 2022 season and after a comfortable victory Saturday, they will have the opportunity to keep that streak alive Sunday.

New York will send Carlos Carrasco to the mound hoping he can continue his strong early form in what has been one of the more enjoyable stories of the season.

Seattle will counter with 2021 AL Cy Young Award Winner Robbie Ray, who has offered more middling results to start this 2022 campaign. Can Ray lead his team to an important victory Sunday?

Seattle Mariners: Ray has Struggled Early in 2022

For several reasons, Robbie Ray was the trendy pick to regress entering the 2022 campaign. A big-part of Ray’s success was abnormally low opponent averages with men on base last season and his xERA of 3.60 suggested he was likely closer to a solid pitcher than a Cy Young Award winner.

On top of that, it is always surprising to see a 29-year-old post significantly better results than they have over the majority of a six-year MLB career.

Well the nay-sayers are certainly looking right so far, as Ray has pitched to a 3-3 record and an 3.62 xERA in a season where pitchers have found dominant results.

Ray’s strikeout rate is down nearly 10% to 23.6%, while his walk-rate is up to 8.6%. It seems very reasonable to think the numbers produced last season are well behind Ray at this point.

Seattle has managed reasonable results altogether at the plate this season, with a 109 wRC+ rating and a .309 wOBA.

Against right-handed starters, Seattle holds the 16th-best wOBA at .306 and the 8th-best wRC+ at 110. The Mariners should offer a firm test for Carrasco on Sunday. The Mariners have also hit to the 11th-best xwOBA at .336 and have altogether displayed solid plate discipline.

Seattle’s bullpen ERA is is in the middle of the pack at 3.61 and it has not fared as well in one-run games as we saw last season. The Mariners are actually sitting with less wins than expected.

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New York Mets: Offense has Taken Steps Forward

The Mets have taken clear steps forward at the plate in the early going and are looking far more competent than many expected. New York has hit to a +110 wRC+ with a .318 wOBA throughout 1291 plate appearances.

New York has fared worse against left-handed pitching however, with an 89 wRC+ and a .285 wOBA.

Robbie Ray essentially throws just a fastball and a slider. The Mets have crushed the fastball so far this season (+15.8 pitch value), but have struggled badly against sliders (-13.0 pitch value).

Carlos Carrasco has been stronger than many may have expected to start the season, pitching to an xERA of 3.35 over 36.2 innings. Carrasco’s wOBA sits at .311, with a strikeout rate at 27.7%.

Mariners-Mets Pick:

Neither of these starting pitchers are ones I expect to be overly dominant down the stretch of this season and an over/under of 7 is certainly giving a lot of respect to their current numbers and reputations.

There’s a strong chance that if we saw this exact matchup in two months the line would be set at eight. Therefore, we have an edge backing the over at this low number.

These teams may not be offensive powerhouses in the big-picture, but I still feel both are competent enough that such a low total — in a game featuring two pitchers who will be closer to league average than exceptional — is not warranted.

I will be playing the over of 7 at -125 and would play 7 to -135.

Pick: Over 7 -125

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