We begin this week with an 8-game slate, opening with Phillies vs. Royals at Kauffman Stadium at 2:10 PM ET and closing with Rockies vs. Dodgers at Dodger Stadium at 10:10 PM ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for today.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today for Monday, July 6.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:45 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Jon Anderson's Phillies vs Royals Best Bet
By Jon Anderson
The Phillies are a heavy left-handed team. They have a team .725 OPS against right-handed pitching and just .670 against lefties. Kyle Schwarber (28%) and Brandon Marsh (35%) strike out a lot in these spots.
I like the Phillies in this one against the Royals, but at -219 on the moneyline, can we really bet on that side? The total is at 8 (-114 for the over). My sim model (which uses MLB Data Warehouse projections) has the Phillies winning this one 70% of the time, but the total is averaging 7.5 runs.
The Phillies are winning this game 4.9 to 2.7 in the sims. Neither offense is in a great spot. You don't feel good about betting on Noah Cameron to keep this one close, but he does have the advantage of not facing too many tough righties in this lineup.
One guy who has overperformed a bit this year is Brandon Marsh. He's always a high BABIP guy, but his mark of .382 is about 20 points higher than his career average.
Against lefties this year, he has a .377 BABIP — which really doesn't make a lot of sense. And given that huge strikeout problem against lefties, I like the Marsh fade tonight.
Read Anderson's full Phillies-Royals analysis on the Leadoff:
Pick: Under 8 (-115), Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases (-168), Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Hits (+174)
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Sean Paul's Yankees vs Rays Best Bet
By Sean Paul
While the Yankees offense has tumbled into the worst in the league, the Rays have leaped to the best in the majors. They boast a 139 wRC+ and have 24 home runs, 11 of which came from Junior Caminero's bat. Yes, you read that right: 11 homers in 15 games.
It's not just Caminero, though. Seven Tampa Bay hitters have a wRC+ better than 130, including usual non-hitters like Taylor Walls, Jonny DeLuca and Chandler Simpson.
With the Rays' ability to put the ball in play, it should lead to a high pitch count for Cam Schlittler and get into a porous Yankees bullpen more quickly.
The line that makes the most sense here is backing the better team as a slight favorite — and it's the Rays. Tampa Bay is dominant at home, posting a 31-12 record.
I don't expect that to change, even against a pitcher of Schlittler's caliber.
Read Paul's full Yankees-Rays breakdown here:
Pick: Rays ML (-115)
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Mets vs Braves Featured Bet Labs System
By Bet Labs
This system targets unders in regular-season MLB games where softer home starting pitchers—low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP—are on the mound in Games 3 or 4 of a series, which is the case for this fourth and final game of the Mets and Braves series.
Freddy Peralta gets the ball for New York, while Reynaldo Lopez starts for Atlanta.
By this point in the series, hitters have seen multiple arms, and scouting reports are sharper, yet scoring remains muted when the matchup lacks overpowering velocity and the wind remains neutral.
The setup avoids exaggerated run environments by filtering out strong directional wind influence, keeping offensive surges in check.
With the home team in the middle of the season grind, winning at a modest clip, the market may overlook how often these quiet conditions lead to slower-paced, low-scoring outcomes.
Pick: Under 9 (-112)
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Sean Zerillo's Blue Jays vs Giants Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the under for tonight's matchup between the Blue Jays and the Giants.
With Toronto projected for 3.78 runs and San Francisco for 3.32, the total would still be lower than the current 7.5 line.
If you want to dive deeper into this matchup, it'd be wise to check out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102)
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Rockies vs Dodgers Player Prop Edge
By Action PRO
Action PRO projects Rockies starter Kyle Freeland for 3.71 strikeouts tonight, giving us a 7.7% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to mark the under with a B- grade in our system.
He has been under this 4.5 line in eight of his past 10 starts.
The last time Freeland faced this Dodgers lineup, on May 26, he fanned just four batters over four complete innings, an outing that was cut short after he was pummeled for nine hits and eight earned runs.
Expect him to struggle again and fade him against Los Angeles.
Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
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