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MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals: Expect Offenses to Deliver Fireworks (Monday, July 4)

MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals: Expect Offenses to Deliver Fireworks (Monday, July 4) article feature image
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Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Bell

  • The Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals renew their regular-season series on Monday at 11:05 a.m. ET to kick off the July 4th holiday.
  • Miami has won all three games in this series by two runs or more. Can the Marlins make it four-in-a-row on July 4, or should bettors more keenly eye the over/under in Monday's contest?
  • MLB betting analyst Tony Sartori previews Monday's MLB game, including updated betting odds, picks and predictions for Marlins vs. Nationals.

Marlins vs. Nationals Odds

Marlins Odds -116
Nationals Odds -102
Over/Under 9 (-106 / -114)
Time 11:05 a.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Our nation’s capital opens up a full day of July 4th baseball as the Washington Nationals host the Miami Marlins. This is the fourth and final game of this NL East intradivisional series, and there have been nine or more total runs scored in two of the first three games.

Will we see another high-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the pitching step up this time around?

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Miami Marlins: Will Garrett Get Back on Track?

The Miami Marlins have been in good form recently as they have won four straight games. Miami will give the ball to left-hander Braxton Garrett in an effort to keep this streak going.

Through five starts this season, Braxton Garrett is 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Garrett’s metrics are just as poor as he possesses a .346 xwOBA, .294 xBA and a .457 xSLG.

In his lone career start against the Nationals, Garrett allowed four earned runs over 2 2/3 innings.

Following Garrett is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since June 1st, the Marlins’ relief pitching ranks just 27th in the league in ERA, 28th in BA, 29th in SLG and 29th in wOBA.

However, this pitching staff should get plenty of run support as the Marlins are slated to go against left-hander Patrick Corbin. Through 163 career plate appearances against Corbin, this current Marlins roster boasts a .280 xBA, .524 xSLG and a .363 xwOBA.

Washington Nationals: What’s Wrong With Corbin?

If the Washington Nationals are to snap their own four-game losing streak, it will most likely have to be because of their bats as struggling left-hander Patrick Corbin is slated to take the mound. Through 16 starts this season, Corbin is 4-10 with a 6.06 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP.

His metrics are somehow even worse as he possesses a .390 xwOBA, .307 xBA and a .553 xSLG. There have been nine or more total runs scored in five of his past seven starts.

Over his past three starts against the Marlins, Corbin has allowed 11 earned runs over 15 innings. Following Corbin is a fade-worthy bullpen.

Since June 1st, the Nationals’ relief pitching ranks 25th in the league in ERA, 23rd in BA, 27th in SLG and 26th in wOBA. With this lineup going against the struggling Braxton Garrett, this pitching staff could get some good run support.

Marlins-Nationals Pick

We have two struggling starting pitchers and two fade-worthy bullpens going against each other in what should be yet another high-scoring affair between these two clubs. Additionally, the Marlins have hit well against Corbin while the Nationals have hovered around league average when facing left-handed pitchers at home.

Fireworks + runs = the over. To put It simply, it would be un-American to not take the over in this game.

Enjoy your July 4th holiday and make sure to take a break from watching this game at 12 p.m. ET to watch the greatest athlete of our generation — Joey Chestnut — defend his throne.

Pick: Marlins/Nationals o9 (-120) | Play up to (-130)

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