Mets vs. Giants Odds, Preview, Prediction: Can Rich Hill Halt New York’s Skid on Monday? (August 16)

Mets vs. Giants Odds, Preview, Prediction: Can Rich Hill Halt New York’s Skid on Monday? (August 16) article feature image
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Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Rich Hill

  • The skidding New York Mets are big underdogs against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park on Monday night.
  • Although the odds point to a Giants win, Michael Arinze believe there is some betting value on the road team tonight.

Mets vs. Giants Odds

Mets Odds +180
Giants Odds -220
Over/Under 8.5
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings.

The Mets will have plenty to think about on their trip out West after being swept at home in a three-game series against the Dodgers. While New York lost the first two games in extra innings by a one-run margin, Los Angeles cruised to a 14-4 win in the series finale. It marked the seventh loss in the last 10 games for the Mets and also dropped them 2.5 games out of first place in the division.

New York will look to rebound with Rich Hill on the mound when it visits the Giants at Oracle Park on Monday night. Kevin Gausman is scheduled to oppose Hill for San Francisco.

On the surface, this might seem like a bad spot for the Mets, particularly after playing in primetime on Sunday Night. However, I’ll offer some reasons why that might not be the case in this instance, given the starting pitchers we’ll see on the mound.

Can Hill Stop the Bleeding?

With the team desperate for starting pitching, the Mets acquired Hill from the Rays about a week before the Trade Deadline. At 41 years of age, the left-hander is still a serviceable pitcher considering his 6-4 record, a 4.05 ERA and  1.19 WHIP. His 4.45 xERA and 4.66 FIP do point to some negative regression, but the Mets seem to be aware of that as they have yet to allow Hill to pitch more than five innings in any of his four starts since joining the team.

Hill’s been much more of a flyball pitcher this season, given his 0.88 GB/FB ratio. As a result, pitching in the cavernous digs of Oracle Park could work to his advantage.

If you want to know if he’s still an effective pitcher, you might want to consider looking at his Called Plus Swinging Strike Rate (CSW), which is above average at 30.2%. He also does a good job getting ahead of hitters with a First-Pitch Strike Rate of 63.2% that’s also above average. He’ll also face a Giants team that he’s had success against. In 17 previous starts, he’s 8-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP.

giants vs dodgers-odds-pick-prediction-preview-mlb-july 19-2021
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Gausman.

Regression Looms for Gausman

It’s been quite a year for Gausman, who was named an All-Star for the first time in his career. Overall, he’s 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.  Like Hill, Gausman is also a candidate for regression considering his 3.28 xERA and  2.94 FIP. However, those numbers would still be more than adequate for any pitcher in the big leagues.

Part of his success this season is his ability to strike out opposing hitters. This is the third consecutive year that his K/9 ratio (10.62) has reached double-digits. He’s also taken advantage of the spacious dimensions in his home park, allowing just 0.79 HR/9 this season.

If you’re into pitcher-vs-team splits, it’s worth noting that Gausman has struggled to a 0-3 record and a 5.09 ERA in four career starts against the Mets and their current starting lineup boasts a .306/.359/.333 slash-line against Gausman in 72 at-bats. Former Giant Kevin Pillar leads the way with a .359/.390/.385 slash-line against the righty.

Mets-Giants Pick

This road trip could make or break the Mets season as they’re in San Francisco for three games before heading to Los Angeles for a rematch with the Dodgers for a four-game set.

Should you consider Hill’s success against the Giants along with Gausman’s struggles when facing the Mets, the road underdog might have some value in this spot.

However, if you’re looking for some action in this game, grabbing New York on the first-5-inning (F5) run-line may be a better option. West Coast teams at home in this spot are 174-193-3 for a loss of 31.79 units when they face a team coming off a game in the Eastern Time Zone.

This would support our expectation of Hill possibly pitching no more than five innings in this spot. It also allows us to isolate Gausman, who has struggled against the Mets.

However, I am still weighing my options as I haven’t fully committed to New York at the moment. But if I decide to play this game, I’d certainly look to take advantage of the +1 F5 run-line DraftKings offers with the Mets.

Pick: Lean Mets F5 RL +1 (+100)

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