Mets vs Nationals Odds, Picks | MLB Betting Guide
Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Corbin.
- The New York Mets and Washington Nationals conclude a four-game NL East series on Monday.
- Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nats, which is basically a holiday for baseball bettors
- Continue reading for our Mets vs. Nationals series finale preview, which includes a number of ways to fade Corbin.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
-110 / -110
-110 / -110
Even as a Yankees fan, I’m almost starting to feel bad for the Mets. I don’t actually feel bad, but almost.
After Steve Cohen spent a boatload of money over the offseason, New York entered the season with the third-best odds to win the World Series. Unfortunately, the injury bug has ravaged through its pitching staff.
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander has made just two starts after dealing with a teres major strain. Jose Quintana (rib surgery) has yet to make a start, Carlos Carrasco (right elbow inflammation) is on the injured list and closer Edwin Diaz is out for the season.
The Mets are one game under .500 and tied for third in the NL East with Miami. The only team below them is the Nationals. A suspended game on Saturday forced the teams to play a partial doubleheader on Sunday, with each winning a contest.
When you look at a starting pitching matchup between David Peterson and Patrick Corbin, which is what we have on Monday, it hardly screams “top-tier pitcher showdown.” But, for gamblers, this is one of the most exciting matchups on the slate.
Let’s find out why in my preview for the Mets vs. Nationals series finale.
When the pitchers tied for the most starts on your team are David Peterson and Tylor Megill, you’re going to have a rough season.
Peterson has struggled to a 1-5 record and 7.68 ERA. While his xERA of 5.26 indicates he’s gotten a bit unlucky, that still ranks in the bottom 25% of the league. Peterson has allowed at least four runs in five of his seven starts to this point; he has especially struggled to an 8.87 ERA on the road. He is currently allowing the hardest barrel rate and wOBA of his career.
Offensively for the Mets, it’s Pete Alonso carrying the majority of the load. He leads the league with 13 home runs and leads the Mets in runs and RBI. Brandon Nimmo leads the way in hits.
As a team, this unit has been league average. New York is 14th with a wRC+ of 101 and 16th in wOBA. Only six teams have scored fewer runs.
For baseball bettors, Patrick Corbin has been one of our favorite pitchers. Over the last three seasons, the Corpse of Corbin has posted a 16-40 record with an ERA of 5.91. That is the worst ERA among all qualified pitchers, and no pitcher has allowed more runs or hits since the start of 2021.
This season, Corbin has an ERA of 4.87, which is his best mark since 2020. But that is no reason for dedicated Corbin faders to panic. He still has an xERA of 5.61 and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. Opponents have an xBA of .312 against him.
Washington is in rebuilding mode, and that is clear to see when you look up and down its lineup. Victor Robles (113) and Lane Thomas (101) are the only players with a wRC+ above 100. The Nats rank in the bottom five of wRC+ and the bottom 10 of wOBA.
For a team in our nation’s capital, there has not been a lot of power on display. The Nats have hit just 25 home runs and don’t have a single player with more than four homers.
Mets vs. Nationals Betting Pick
The great part about Corbin starts is there are many different ways to bet against him. Basically, you get to choose your own adventure.
You could fade him by betting the Mets moneyline, which at the time of this writing is around -160. Since 2020, if you bet against Corbin in every start, you would be 56-24 with a 70% win rate and up over $1,500.
You could also take the Mets in the First Five innings, which is around -165. However, given the struggles of Peterson, I don’t want to lay that much juice.
You could take the Mets starter out of the equation and just back New York’s team total either over five in the game or over 2.5 in the First Five innings. This is the most direct way to fade Corbin. The Mets lineup has a career .355 wOBA against him.
Mets TT Over 5
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If you want to fade both starting pitchers, play the first half over five. Peterson has been just as bad, if not worse, than Corbin this season. Peterson has allowed at least four runs through five innings in five of his seven starts. Corbin has allowed at least three runs in six of his eight starts.
I’m a fan of any of these options, but the First Five over five is my recommendation as the best bet.
Washington has been much better against left-handed pitchers, ranking 8th in wOBA against southpaws. Fade both Corbin and Peterson — if you have extra loot from this past weekend, responsibly throw in a few correlated bets and hope we see a lot of runs early.
Pick: Five Five Innings Over 5 (-110; BetMGM)
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