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Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Too Low For Max Scherzer vs. Kyle Gibson (Friday, May 6)

Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, Predictions: Total Too Low For Max Scherzer vs. Kyle Gibson (Friday, May 6) article feature image
Credit:

Joe Puetz/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Scherzer

Editor’s Note: Friday’s Mets-Phillies game has been postponed because of inclement weather.

Mets vs. Phillies Odds

Mets Odds -135
Phillies Odds +115
Over/Under 7 (-110/-110)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We’ve got a solid pitching matchup on tap in the second game of a four-game NL East series between the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies as Max Scherzer is expected to go against Kyle Gibson.

Will these two right-handers shut down the opposing lineups, or can the bats come alive in this game?

Mets Solid Against Right-Handers

The Mets enter this contest in good form as they had won nine of their last 14 games prior to Thursday. There were seven or more total runs scored in 10 of those 14 outings, a trend I think will continue in this matchup.

New York’s lineup has really picked it up over that stretch as the Mets are averaging 4.21 runs scored per game during this run. The bats could continue to roll against the right-hander Gibson.

Against right-handed pitchers this season, the Mets rank second in the league in BA, second in wOBA, eighth in SLG, and second in OPS.

Despite Scherzer’s dominance this season, there have been seven or more total runs scored in four of his five starts. Additionally, the total has surpassed seven total runs in both of his starts against Philadelphia this year.

Relief pitching has been a concern for the Mets thus far, which could come into play once Scherzer exits the game in this matchup. This season, Mets relief pitchers rank just 22nd in the league in ERA, 17th in wOBA, and 19th in SLG.

Phillies Have Had Success Against Scherzer

While the Mets enter this game in good form, the Philadelphia Phillies have been trending in the opposite direction as they had lost four of their last five games prior to Thursday.

Like the Mets, the Phillies have seen some high-scoring games recently as there have been seven or more total runs scored in six of their last nine contests before Thursday.

Over that stretch, the Phillies are averaging 5.22 runs scored per game. Also similar to the Mets, the Phillies’ lineup has had good success against right-handed pitchers.

Against right-handers this season, Philadelphia ranks 11th in the league in BA, ninth in wOBA, seventh in SLG, and eighth in OPS. While there is no denying Scherzer’s greatness, the Phillies have hit well against him this year.

Through two starts against Philadelphia, Scherzer possesses a 4.09 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 11 innings. The Mets possess a fade-worthy bullpen, a statement that rings true for the Phillies as well.

This season, Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks just 21st in the league in ERA, 25th in BA, and 23rd in wOBA.

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Mets-Phillies Pick

We are getting good value in the over on this total, which is set too low due to the starting pitchers. While yes, both are extremely good, almost all of the other indications suggest that this game should get to at least seven.

These are two lineups that hit well against right-handed pitchers, and two bullpens worth fading down the stretch. The public will be all over the under due to the names of the starters, which makes me like this play even more.

Pick: Mets/Phillies o7 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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