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Mets vs. Rockies Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Underdog Colorado to Down New York (Sunday, May 22)

Mets vs. Rockies Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Underdog Colorado to Down New York (Sunday, May 22) article feature image
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Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies standout Charlie Blackmon.

  • The Mets take on the Rockies in Sunday's matinee at Coors Field.
  • These sides are coming off a Saturday doubleheader, where Rockies erupted for 11 runs in the nightcap.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the game below and gives his top pick.

Mets vs. Rockies Odds

Mets Odds -120
Rockies Odds +100
Over/Under 11
Time 3:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

New York and Colorado meet Sunday for the rubber match of a three-game set.

The Rockies will send left-handed pitcher Austin Gomber to the mound, who has a 4.39 ERA in  39 innings pitched this season. Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets, and has been altogether more solid than many would have expected with his 3.52 ERA through 23 innings of work.

Continued strong play from Walker will be crucial for the Mets during Max Scherzer’s absence, but will he be able to keep it up? Let’s see where we can find betting value in this matinee.

New York Mets

Walker has continued to manage more effective results than most sharper baseball minds would have expected coming out of spring training, even if some regression is likely headed his way.

Walker’s xERA of 3.95 would likely still be something Mets fans would happily take or at least with the rotation at closer to full health.

Yet, even managing that kind of result could prove somewhat unlikely. Walker’s fastball velocity and spin rates have dropped and his strikeout rate has fallen to just 12.8 percent.

Walker has been hard-hit 40% of the time, which is a concerning number entering this matchup with the Rockies at Coors Field. It seems likely this is a high-water mark in overall results, so I believe we will see him trend downward from here on out.

Over his last three outings, Walker’s OPS allowed sits at 1.220 facing the order for the third time, which could be somewhat more of a concerning number with these teams coming off a doubleheader.

So, it could be quite possible the Mets need to provide Walker with some strong run support. However, it might be not as simple as one might expect looking at an easy target in Gomber.

New York has been significantly less effective facing left-handed pitching. Through 416 plate appearances, they have hit to a 97 wRC+ and a .296 wOBA.

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Colorado Rockies

The Rockies will look to build on their massive offensive performance in Saturday’s second game against Walker and the Mets. Overall, Colorado has not dominated right-handed pitching, managing a .324 wOBA and a 91 wRC+.

Overall, Colorado holds an xwoba mark sitting right with the Mets at .329 and the gap between these sides hasn’t been as significant as one might expect.

C.J. Cron and Connor Joe have taken significant strides forward, while several veterans such as Randal Grichuk have been more effective than I would have expected entering the campaign. And the result has been pretty reasonable play at the plate from the Rockies.

Gomber has pitched to just a 4.98 xERA in 39 innings so far in 2022, with a 20.5% strikeout rate and .368 xwoba overall. He has an excellent 4.80 QOPA, with plus ratings on each of his four pitches.

Pitching at Coors half the time surely hasn’t helped, but it does seem likely Gomber can fare a little better than we have seen so far. I think he will trend toward his more reasonable results seen in 2021, including a 4.09 xERA.

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Mets-Rockies Pick

It seems quite realistic to think the Rockies can get to Walker for a big total in a tough spot at Coors Field. Gomber is by no means a world beater, but I actually think New York isn’t holding a pitching edge in this matchup and that this game projects closer to pick ’em.

We should see another higher scoring game, but the most value is on the Rockies moneyline at +100.

Pick: Colorado ML (+100)

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