MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Mets vs. Yankees Game 1 (Sunday, August 30)

Mets vs. Yankees Game 1 Betting Odds

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After Sunday, the Mets and Yankees will have played five games in three days as a response to last weekend’s postponement due to a COVID-19 breakout in the Mets clubhouse. The Mets came from behind to win the first two games and were tied in the ninth inning before a wild pitch gave the Yankees an unconventional walk-off win in the third.

Both teams are set to do battle yet again in another doubleheader, with Rick Porcello getting the start for the Mets against Deivi Garcia of the Yankees.

The Mets have certainly been able to take advantage with the Yankees missing some bats in the lineup.

In Game 1 of this doubleheader, expect them to also have an edge on the mound.

New York Mets

After two quality starts Porcello looked like he was turning the corner. However, his next two starts seemed to suggest otherwise.

After six starts on the year, Porcello is 1-4 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. Despite his high WHIP, Porcello’s BB/9 ratio is just 1.93 and when you consider his .413 BABIP vs. .336 BAA, seemingly every time a ball is put in play it results in a hit. This appears to be extremely unlucky and judging by his 3.03 FIP, our assessment is correct.

It’s impossible to know when the numbers will start to even out for Porcello, but he stands a good chance for success against this Yankee lineup.

Current batters are only hitting .265 against him with a .322 OBP. He’ll need to be mindful of Aaron Hicks, who despite having a .128 BAA, has three home runs in 39 at-bats against Porcello.

New York Yankees

Yankees prospect Deivi Garcia will make his major league debut in the first game of the doubleheader.

Garcia progressed through three levels of minor league baseball last season and racked up 165 strikeouts in just under 112 innings.

He’s predominantly a fastball, curveball and changeup pitcher but has recently added a slider to his arsenal. His fastball is 91-97 mph, which he uses to pitch up in the zone, but his best pitch is his curveball, which possesses an above average spin rate.

He’ll need to feature his curveball quite a bit today, because if the bottom of his fastball is around 91 mph, he won’t be fooling too many major league hitters.

Betting Analysis and Pick

With this being a seven-inning game featuring the call-up of a Yankee prospect, it’s tough for me to take a position with either side. I do think that Porcello will be interesting to watch over his next few starts to see if the numbers against him begin to balance out. He’s the kind of pitcher that can frustrate hitters simply because he doesn’t throw particularly hard. At some point this season those batted balls will start to turn into outs, and we should be ready to take advantage.

If I had to decide which team has been playing the better ball of late and which team has motivation on their side, I’d have to say it’s the Mets. This is a winnable game with a veteran pitcher like Porcello on the mound.

I was able to find one nugget that would add credence to a lean on the Mets.

Dating back to July 2005, the Yankees are 62-47 following a walk-off win, but -7.98 in units.

I don’t think I’ll get involved in this one but I’d have to lean to the Mets in this matchup.

DraftKings is currently listing them at -105 but I’d hold out to see if I can grab them at a plus-price.

The Pick: Lean Mets at +100 or better

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