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Mets World Series, Pennant, NL East Odds Amid Jacob deGrom’s Long Awaited Return From Injury

Mets World Series, Pennant, NL East Odds Amid Jacob deGrom’s Long Awaited Return From Injury article feature image
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Adam Hunger/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.

Jacob deGrom will start his first big league game of the season on Tuesday against the Nationals, the Mets announced.

deGrom has been out for over a year amid a litany of injuries. When he last pitched on July 7, 2021, the Mets were in first place and had roughly -250 consensus odds to win the National League East.

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However, the Mets finished the season 77-85 and became the team that stayed in first place the longest without winning its division. Their starters’ ERA were abysmal in the interim.

The impact — from arguably the best pitcher in baseball — is evident in how drastically Mets lines have changed since deGrom’s return became official.

The Mets had been a consensus +800 to win the World Series at most major American sportsbooks prior to the news of deGrom’s official return.

Now, they’re +600 at DraftKings and +700 at FanDuel.

To win the pennant? The Mets moved from +350 to +300 at FanDuel, remaining as second-best favorites behind the Dodgers, who are +145 in that marketplace.

At DraftKings, the Mets’ odds to win the pennant are +280, down from +325 a day prior.

And for the division crown, the Mets are now -310 favorites at DraftKings to win their first title since 2015. They’re a staggering -330 at FanDuel to do the same. The team had been hovering around the -200s prior to the news.

Those odds give the Mets roughly a 75-to-76% chance to win the division, according to the implied odds. FiveThirtyEight gives New York  a 75% chance.

Odds at +600 to win the World Series mean implied odds of 14%. Odds at +700 mean a 12.5% chance. For reference, 538 gives the Mets about a 12% chance to win it all.

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