The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on May 4, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Brewers are favored by -118 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Brewers vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Brewers vs Cardinals Prediction
- Brewers vs Cardinals Pick: Over 8.5
My Brewers vs Cardinals best bet is Over 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Cardinals Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -102 |
- Brewers vs Cardinals moneyline: Brewers -118, Cardinals -102
- Brewers vs Cardinals over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Brewers vs Cardinals spread: Brewers -1.5 (+145), Cardinals +1.5 (-175)
Brewers vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| RHP Chad Patrick (MIL) | Stat | RHP Kyle Leahy (SL) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 2.57 / 4.26 | ERA / xERA | 5.52 / 6.01 |
| 4.33 / 5.52 | FIP / xFIP | 5.64 / 4.18 |
| 2.6 | K-BB% | 8.2 |
| 35.7 | GB% | 51.0 |
| .241 | BABIP | .344 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 97 | Location+ | 105 |
Brewers vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Milwaukee Brewers
Coming off a series win in Washington, the Brewers head down to St. Louis and hand the ball to Chad Patrick in the season opener. After a solid rookie season, Patrick has a 2.57 ERA through six outings in 2026. He started the year great, but has slid a bit recently, and his expected metrics are concerning.
Patrick has allowed six runs in the last nine innings, and while his 2.57 ERA looks solid, his 4.27 xERA tells a different story. He relies primarily on his cutter-fastball-sinker combination and has a 5.14 K/9 rate this season, one of the lowest in the league. However, he also has a very low groundball rate. Patrick was overperforming early on, but is already starting to regress.
Despite dealing with a ton of key injuries, Milwaukee continues to find ways to put up offensive numbers. They are top 10 in runs scored and do it in a variety of ways.
The Brew Crew is 29th in home runs, although that doesn’t matter because they get on base a ton, leading the league in walks. They are elite at running the bases and turning baserunners into runs.
Even with Jackson Chourio yet to debut, and Christian Yelich and Andrew Vaughn on the injured list, the lineup continues to produce. Brice Turang is one of the most consistent hitters in the game and sets the tone in this Brewers lineup. William Contreras is producing as well, and Tyler Black is in the middle of a hot streak at the plate.
St. Louis Cardinals
With a thin starting rotation this season, the Cardinals decided to transition Kyle Leahy from a reliable relief pitcher to a starter. It has been a bit bumpy so far for him, though. Last year, Leahy posted a 3.07 ERA in 62 relief appearances. After six starts this season, he currently holds a 5.52 ERA.
His expected ERA is half a run higher at 6.01, and he is allowing a ton of hard contact. Leahy does a good job keeping the ball on the ground, but he does not miss bats, and guys are crushing the ball with a 50% hard-hit rate.
Action PRO projects him for just 4.2 strikeouts today.
St. Louis has gotten off to a surprising start on offense this year. Expected to be a rebuilding team, they rank in the top 10 in runs and sit fourth in home runs. They are aggressive at the plate, looking to attack early in counts.
The story has been the breakout of a pair of young stars in St. Louis. Jordan Walker and JJ Wetherholt have both gotten off to excellent starts and are bringing a ton of fun and optimism to the Cardinals.
Walker is batting .307 with 10 home runs on the year, and the rookie Wetherholt has looked great at the top of the order.
Brewers vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
Patrick has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season, with just a 5.14 K/9 rate. Most of the time, when a pitcher isn’t missing bats, they rely on inducing soft contact on the ground to survive.
However, he doesn’t really do that either. He sits in the 17th percentile in ground ball rate and the 35th percentile in hard hit rate. So, he is not striking guys out and is allowing hard contact in the air. Seems problematic.
We have already seen Patrick regress towards his expected indicators recently (2.57 ERA vs. 4.27 xERA), and I expect that to continue.
The Brewers don’t rely on home runs but get on baes at an elite level. They generate walks, don’t strikeout and take a high-contact approach. Once on base, Milwaukee relies on speed and savvy base running to generate runs.
Leahy has struggled a bit with his transition to the starting rotation, holding a 5.52 ERA through his first six starts. He has allowed at least two runs in every outing, and his expected ERA is even worse at 6.01.
Opponents have a 50% hard hit rate against Leahy, and while he does a good job of mostly keeping the ball on the ground, hitters are crushing him.
St. Louis almost takes the opposite approach at the plate than Milwaukee, but it has worked for them. The Cardinals rank fourth in the league in home runs this season. They are very aggressive at the plate, looking to jump on pitchers early in the count. Their two young stars, Walker and Wetherholt, have provided a power surge to this lineup and have them right in the thick of this competitive NL Central.
Both of these pitchers have concerning xERAs and struggle to strike out hitters. These two offenses are both top 10 in runs scored and have found a variety of ways to produce runs.
It will be 75 degrees with winds blowing out at Busch Stadium on Monday night. With two good base-running teams, friendly hitting weather, and a whole bunch of balls being put in play, we should see plenty of runs on Monday night.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115, BetMGM)
