The Detroit Tigers host the Minnesota Twins on August 5, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Detroit Tigers came back to beat the Minnesota Twins in game one. The Tigers enter as -165 favorites with an 8.5 run total
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
- Twins vs Tigers picks: Twins F5 ML
My Twins vs Tigers best bet is Twins F5 ML with the best odd currently in BetMGM. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Tigers Odds
Twins Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | +138 |
Tigers Odds | ||
---|---|---|
Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 8.5 -102o / -119u | -169 |
Twins vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
RHP Zebby Matthews (MIN) | Stat | RHP Chris Paddack (DET) |
---|---|---|
2-3 | W-L | 4-9 |
1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
5.67/4.11 | ERA /xERA | 4.77/4.52 |
2.96/3.10 | FIP / xFIP | 4.26/4.49 |
1.41 | WHIP | 1.24 |
4.7 | K-BB% | 3.3 |
34.4 | GB% | 36.5 |
107 | Stuff+ | 93 |
104 | Location+ | 113 |
Sean Paul’s Twins vs Tigers Preview
The Twins' decision to trade almost half of their big-league roster effectively ended any hope they had of a miracle playoff run.
Now, it’s all about enjoying the small things and players who can impact the team beyond 2025. One of those is Zebby Matthews.
Matthews is due for some huge positive regression. The 25-year-old right-hander has an ugly 5.67 ERA, but his 4.11 xERA and 2.96 FIP show that one of the bright prospects in the Twins system is ready to blossom.
He’s already one of the premier strikeout artists in MLB, punching out over 11 batters per nine. His high-velocity fastball that can reach triple digits helps Matthews rank in the 70th percentile or better in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.
I’m only looking to back Matthews in this matchup, which is why I’m taking the first five line. Minnesota just closed out Sunday’s game with Michael Tonkin and Erasmo Ramirez and barely held onto a three-run lead in the ninth.
I want to avoid that situation at all costs, and I’d look to grab the Tigers live once Matthews leaves if they trail. And the Twins bullpen cratered again on Monday, as Noah Davis entered the sixth with a 3-2 lead and they trailed 6-3 shortly after.
The Twins' offense didn’t just lose Carlos Correa and Harrison Bader to trades; they also lost their oft-injured star, Byron Buxton, to yet another injury.
Since the All-Star break, the Twins rank 16th in MLB with a 101 wRC+. While it’s a decent sample, it does include Correa and Bader, so take that number with a grain of salt.
What it also includes is Royce Lewis, who’s finally healthy, and he’s second on the Twins with a 167 wRC+ in their last 15 games. Matt Wallner is the Twins leader in wRC+ in that span, posting a 169 wRC+ with four homers. The real key is Austin Martin, who adds a different element to Minnesota’s lineup with his bat-to-ball skills and speed.
Among the mass exodus in Minnesota was Chris Paddack, who is starting for the Tigers in this matchup. Paddack collected a quality start with six innings and one run in his debut with Detroit against the Diamondbacks.
Paddack is an effective innings-eater, but not much more. He boasts a 4.77 ERA with a 4.52 xERA and 4.26 FIP. He also gets hit hard, ranking in the 28th percentile in average exit velocity and 18th in hard hit rate.
The Tigers offense that couldn’t be contained for the first couple of months of the year is now one of the worst offenses in baseball.
In Detroit’s last 29 games, it ranks 24th in baseball with a 94 wRC+. The Tigers' biggest problem is their brutal 25% strikeout rate (second-worst in MLB) and 7.3% walk rate (25th in MLB).
Can those issues be improved? Sure, but I’m not sure if their offense is built to turn it around. Plus, they’re rapidly turning into a home run or bust team. They have just a .230 batting average in those 28 games, which is 26th in MLB. The good is that they rank seventh in MLB with 38 homers. Nobody encapsulates the Tigers home run-or-bust approach more than Riley Greene, whose hitting .187 with seven homers and a 36% strikeout rate in his last 112 at bats.
Kerry Carpenter being back is also a nice boost. He homered on Monday, but he alone probably won't solve all the Tigers problems.
Twins vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Matthews is a budding young top-of-the-rotation arm in Minnesota. In this matchup, Matthews should be able to neutralize this Tigers swing-and-miss-heavy lineup with his elite swing-and-miss stuff.
Like I stated earlier, I want no business with this Twins nightmarish bullpen. Take the first five moneyline and get on the Zebby train before the market catches up on him.
Pick: Twins F5 ML
Moneyline
No play for the full game. Just the F5 on the Twins.
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play