The Houston Astros host the Minnesota Twins on June 29, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Astros are favored by -135 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +115 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Astros Prediction
- Twins vs Astros Pick: Over 9
My Twins vs Astros best bet is on the over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Astros Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +150 | 9 -104o / -115u | +115 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -185 | 9 -104o / -115u | -135 |
- Twins vs Astros moneyline: Twins +115, Astros -135
- Twins vs Astros over/under: 9 (-104o / -115u)
- Twins vs Astros spread: Astros -1.5 (+150 ), Twins +1.5 (-185)
Twins vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Zebby Matthews (RHP, MIN) | Stat | Peter Lambert (RHP, HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-5 | W-L | 6-4 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 4.56 / 4.08 | ERA / xERA | 3.28 / 3.48 |
| 4.94 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.00 / 4.43 |
| 13.7% | K-BB% | 12.6% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 40.1% |
| .268 | BABIP | .249 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 100 | Location+ | 100 |
Twins vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
With Zebby Matthews and Peter Lambert on the hill in Houston, the model likes this battle between the Twins and Astros for an astounding 11.75 runs. That's +2.75 on the O/U line of 9.
We've had 220 games like this with a difference of 2+ runs, and in those instances, the model is at a whopping 57%. So, it's hard not to feel good about the over in this one.
My matchups model looks at how each hitter performs against pitches most like the ones they'll see from tonight's starter. We have six hitters with xwOBAs above .360 in this one, which is an elite range for xwOBA:
- Yordan Alvarez .476
- Byron Buxton .378
- Royce Lewis .378
- Josh Bell .375
- Yainer Diaz .361
- Trevor Larnach .360
Feel free to shop around on any of those guys for some H+R+RBI.
I also like leveraging HRR correlations; for example, the #1 and #2 hitters are highly correlated in this regard.
An RBI from the #2 guy usually means a run for the #1 guy. Some of the correlation combos I like:
The 1-2:
- Larnach + Buxton
- Jeremy Pena + Alvarez
The 3-4:
- Kody Clemens + Lewis
- Isaac Paredes + Christian Walker
It's a pretty great spot for Isaac Paredes. He's always been a better option at home, with the advantage the Crawford Boxes bring to his elite air pull rate.
Matthews is one of the easiest pitchers to hit in the air, so if Paredes can pull a couple, he's likely to find the seats.
Twins vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
This is my model's most confident O/U pick of the day, and it's over 9.
I've been tracking these all year long. Any time my model projects a game one run different than the sportsbook line, it takes that side of the bet and tracks it.
So far, we've won 55% of these bets, which is good enough to cover the juice and be a profitable model.
This game is stacked up, with a lot of strong odds for homers. Take it how you want to take it to the books, but I'll keep it simple with my pick.
Pick: Over 9 (-104)
