The Houston Astros host the Minnesota Twins on on June 13, 2025. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MNNT.
Find my MLB betting preview and Twins vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Twins vs Astros Prediction
- Twins vs Astros picks: Chris Paddack Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-109)
My Twins vs Astros best bet is Chris Paddack under his earned runs allowed prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Astros Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | -120 |
Twins vs Astros Starting Pitchers
| Chris Paddack (MIN) | Stat | Colton Gordon (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.53 / 4.00 | ERA /xERA | 5.11 / 3.17 |
| 4.23 / 4.51 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64 / 3.29 |
| 1.12 | WHIP | 1.38 |
| 10.3 | K-BB% | 20.8 |
| 39.3 | GB% | 35.1 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 113 | Location+ | 110 |
Twins vs Astros Prediction, Betting Breakdown
Chris Paddack was rocked for nine earned runs over 3.1 innings pitched in his first start of the season.
Since then, he's been awesome. Paddack has a 2.51 ERA over 12 starts after his miserable season debut. His stuff isn't overwhelming, but he has an excellent 113 Location+ on the strength of an elite fastball.
Paddack's four-seamer has a +7 run value, and he's done a great job locating it away from righties. Lance Brozdowski of Marquee Sports Network pointed out that 59% of Paddack's four-seamers (to righties) have been on the outer third of the plate this season, up from 46% last season.
He's also added a sinker that he's pounded inside to righties. Along with a solid slider and changeup, the arsenal looks legit, and Paddack has allowed two earned runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts.
This is a surprisingly good matchup for him. The Astros rank 22nd in wRC+, 23rd in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days.
Isaac Paredes has been one of their most productive hitters this season, but he went down with a leg injury yesterday. Tonight's projected lineup without Paredes has an ugly .106 ISO and a .298 wOBA vs. righties this season. Those marks would rank 30th and 27th, respectively.
The Astros should have at least seven righties in their lineup. Paddack's main flaw has been strikeouts this season, but he has a respectable 21.9% K% vs. righties.
Pick: Chris Paddack Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-109)
Moneyline
I don't have a play on the moneyline in this Twins vs. Astros game.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't have a play on the run line.
Over/Under
I don't have a play on the regular total, but I'm targeting Chris Paddack under 2.5 earned runs allowed.
