Tuesday MLB Best Bets: 5 Picks & Props (April 2)
Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge.
The MLB season continues on Tuesday with a 14-game slate.
With games kicking off at 4:10 p.m. ET and rolling through 10:10 p.m. ET, our staff came through with five best bets for Tuesday's MLB games. Whether you're looking for moneyline plays, total bets or player props, we have you covered.
Read on for all five of our Tuesday MLB best bets, picks and props — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MLB betting coverage.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets: 5 Picks & Props (April 2)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 6:40 p.m. | ||
| 9:40 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Reds vs. Phillies
By Tony Sartori
The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds on TBS in the afternoon window of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Right-hander Spencer Turnbull makes his first start of the campaign for Philadelphia, and he should be a good fade candidate.
Turnbull made only seven starts on the mound last season, but they did not go well. He posted a 1-4 record with a 7.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Although he did not officially qualify, his underlying metrics were just as poor, as the right-hander would have ranked in the bottom 30th percentile among all pitchers in xERA and xBA.
He also struggled in the strikeout department, ranking in the bottom 30th percentile in Whiff% and K%. Subsequently, he recorded three or fewer strikeouts in five of those seven outings.
Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against Cincinnati, a team that has gotten off to a strong start at the dish this year and ranks eighth in the league in K%.
Pick: Spencer Turnbull Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+122 · Play to +100)
Braves vs. White Sox
By Cody Goggin
On Opening Day, no one had any idea what to expect from Garrett Crochet. The man had never started a game in either the majors or minors and had only played sparingly over the last half-decade.
Crochet had only amassed 73 MLB innings, all out of the bullpen and only 12 1/3 total innings between Double-A and Triple-A.
Crochet shocked everyone when he threw six innings in his first career start, allowing only one run and striking out eight against the Detroit Tigers.
Not only were the results good, but the underlying numbers were as well. Crochet posted an outstanding Stuff+ figure of 120 in this game, which was one of the highest marks of any pitcher last week.
I believe the books have not yet given Crochet his due, as his strikeout prop right now sits at just 4.5 despite striking out eight in his last outing.
The Braves are admittedly a much tougher opponent than the Tigers were, and there's a chance Crochet gets chased from this game early. However, the stuff is just too good to ignore.
My strikeout model gives Crochet an average of 5.51 and a median of five strikeouts in this game. I give him a 65.8% chance of going over 4.5 Ks, which would represent about a 10% edge based on where the market is pricing him right now.
I would take this over on Crochet and bet it up to -165.
Pick: Garrett Crochet Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-142 · Play to -165)
Angels vs. Marlins
By Sean Zerillo
As I mentioned in Monday's column, the Marlins' bullpen has worked hard early in the 2024 season and has already blown multiple late leads.
Key relievers Anthony Bender, Andrew Nardi, Sixto Sanchez, George Soriano and Tanner Scott have each pitched three of the past five days, with four of those pitchers — including Scott, who pitched on consecutive days — going twice in the past three days.
Miami desperately needs a deep outing from Jesus Luzardo (projected FIP range 3.76-3.85) to rest its bullpen. Still, I said you would find value on Tuesday's over if Miami deployed its key relievers on Monday. I set Tuesday's total at 9.26 runs and bet the over while Monday's game was still in progress. Play the over to 8.5 (-120) or 9 (-102).
Luzardo could keep the run-scoring in check, but if his pitch count ramps up, the Marlins don't have many options to fill out the middle innings of this contest.
Los Angeles projects to have a better offense against lefties than righties. Anthony Rendon (106 wRC+ vs. lefties), Aaron Hicks (119 wrC+ vs. lefties), Mike Trout (152), Taylor Ward (128), Brandon Drury (140), Logan O'Hoppe (147), Luis Rengifo (136) and Zach Neto (118) all show superior splits against southpaw pitching.
I'm low on Tyler Anderson (4.96 xERA, 5.52 xFIP last season; projected FIP range 4.75-5.14), and the Angels' bullpen — which isn't quite as overworked as Miami's — has three relievers in Adam Cimber, Jose Soriano and Carlos Estevez who have had a higher workload in recent days.
I'd lean over on Luzardo's strikeout prop (6.5, -120), considering he may get pushed closer to 100 pitches on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 8.5 (Play to -120 or Over 9 at -102)
By Doug Ziefel
Walks are not the most glamorous of the player props, but they do provide some of the biggest edges, and that's the case today. Angels lefty Tyler Anderson will be making his first start of the season against the Miami Marlins.
The Marlins' lineup has some new faces, and they're primed to punish lefties, but one thing they've been early on this season is patient. Miami comes into this matchup 12th in walk rate, receiving free passes at a rate that's 2% higher than last year.
Patience will be essential for Miami tonight, as Anderson tends to plague himself with walks. Last season, he struggled mightily with his command, going over this total 81% of the time.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -426 that he will go over again tonight.
In addition to the significant edge in price, Ballpark Pal has Anderson projected for 2.3 walks tonight and is the third-likeliest pitcher on the slate to allow two walks.
Pick: Tyler Anderson Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-140 · Play to -180)
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks
I'm not really sure Zac Gallen should be a favorite here even though the Diamondbacks are at home.
Gallen overperformed his expected metrics last season, posting a 4.16 expected ERA as opposed to his 3.47 actual ERA. The reason for that is because when got hit, he got hit hard. Gallen finished the season below the fifth percentile in both average exit velocity allowed and hard hit rate allowed.
Plus, all of his pitches from a Stuff+ perspective are only slightly above the Major League average.
The Yankees hit right-handed pitchers much better than lefties last season and have gotten off to a hot start in 2024. Apparently, it helps to have Juan Soto in the lineup.
Nestor Cortes is much better than he showed in his first start and last season. In 2022, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.70 ERA. But last season, he battled injuries, and his ERA ballooned up to 4.97.
Still, his expected ERA came in at 3.66, so it wasn't as bad as it seemed.
The Stuff+ numbers for Cortes were fine too, posting a rating of 104 with his fastball still being above average by MLB standards. That's big because he throws that pitch over 50% of the time.
The Yankees will also have a pretty significant edge in the bullpen, as Arizona ranked 17th in xFIP and 26th in Stuff+ in 2023 and didn't make any moves to improve their bullpen.
I have the Yankees projected as -116 favorites, so I like the value on them at +105.
Pick: Yankees ML +105
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