It’s MLB Sunday, and we’ve got 15 games today with all 30 teams in action.
Our writers are absolutely ecstatic about the August 6 slate as auto-fade candidate Dallas Keuchel makes his 2023 debut for Minnesota.
Naturally, Action Network’s experts are all over the Diamondbacks vs Twins game, plus Cubs vs Braves, for their Sunday best bets.
Read on for their three betting picks below.
TODAY MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs. Twins
Sunday, Aug. 6 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
D-backs F5 ML (-152)  |
I am feeling beyond blessed to have Dallas Keuchel back in my life.
The last time we saw the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner, he posted a 9.20 ERA across stints with three teams — the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Rangers — a season ago.
Almost exactly 11 months ago, Keuchel gave up seven runs in less than five innings against the Red Sox. I was confident that was the last time we would see him in a major-league uniform.
But here he is. Somehow, someway, Keuchel is back in the bigs. This time with the Twins, who purchased his contract after Joe Ryan went on the injured list.
Keuchel made six starts in Triple-A for St. Paul this year, and, if you take a look at the stats, you might think he's figured something out with a sparkly 1.69 ERA.
Even if we're setting aside the fact that this is a 35-year-old facing minor leaguers, I'm not exactly sold on a guy who was giving up more than a baserunner per inning and still failing to clear a strikeout per inning.
He's still not clearing an average fastball velocity of 88 mph, and all the minor-league data indicates this is still not a pitcher who belongs in a big-league rotation.
A matchup with NL Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen is tasty enough, but there's at least enough uncertainty here given the Diamondbacks' recent woes that we are still getting a reasonable number in the -150 range. Arizona has lost five in a row, including the first two games of this series, and are in a dogfight in the NL wild-card race.
Given those issues and the fact that the Diamondbacks didn't add any significant reinforcements at the deadline, I'm taking the bullpens out of the equation and making this a strict Keuchel vs. Gallen bet.
I would take the Diamondbacks F5 moneyline at -170 or better, reducing my risk at anything worse than -160. Keuchel was one of my favorite fade pitchers a year ago; let's hope he gives us at least one more gift this season before calling it a career.
Pick: D-backs F5 ML (-152) |
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Diamondbacks vs. Twins
Sunday, Aug. 6 2:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
D-backs ML (-148)  |
Gamblers everywhere, rejoice! On this glorious Sunday, our savior has risen!
First, it was the corpse of Jake Arrieta that filled the bankrolls of the Action Network staff, but after he was finally put out to pasture, we turned our sights firmly onto Dallas Keuchel as baseball bettors' favorite star-turned-auto-fade.
Since the start of the 2021 season, Keuchel has posted a 6.35 ERA with opponents batting .306 against him with a 40% hard-hit rate. He has a minuscule 5.66 K/9 and has lost all of his control, holding a 3.64 BB/9.
When we last saw Keuchel, he ranked in the bottom 5% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, xBA and strikeout percentage. In 14 starts last year, he had a 9.20 ERA and his average velocity was down to 87 mph. All five of his pitches allowed an opponent average over .299 last season.
Arizona has the advantage at the plate with a .323 team wOBA (compared to Minnesota’s .316), especially with Byron Buxton on the injured list. Oh, and opposing Keuchel is the second favorite for the NL Cy Young Award (Zac Gallen).
Gallen has a 3.41 ERA and 9.40 K/9. He rarely issues walks and should dominate a Twins lineup that has an MLB-worst 27.1% strikeout rate. If you bet against Keuchel in every one of his starts last season, you would have gone 10-4. Don’t expect anything different in 2023.
Choose your own adventure on how you want to fade him.
Arizona ML -148 is the easiest way, but I have also played the F5 -0.5 (-114) and Diamondbacks Team Total over 4.5.
Picks: D-backs ML (-148) OR F5 -0.5 (-114) OR Team Total Over 4.5.
Braves vs. Cubs
Sunday, Aug. 6 2:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cubs ML (+105)  |
Charlie Morton is a big-time negative regression candidate. His ERA sits at 3.62, but his expected ERA is 4.84. He’s having some control issues as his BB/9 is above four for the first time since 2016.
The thing about Morton is he only features two pitches: curveball and a fastball. He throws one of those pitches 78% of the time — his curveball has been really good (38% whiff rate and .245 xwOBA allowed), but his fastball has not. He’s allowing a .402 xwOBA with his heater and it only has a Stuff+ rating of 75.
The Cubs have the hottest offense in baseball right now. Since the All-Star break, Chicago leads MLB in both wOBA and wRC+, along with scoring 150 runs in 21 games. They also have a +28.3 run value against fastballs over that span.
Justin Steele has put up stellar numbers and is a legitimate NL Cy Young candidate. He has a 3.36 xERA and has been incredibly dominant with his fastball.
Steele is not the type of pitcher who is going to blow it by you. Instead, he uses a number of different arm angles on his fastball to make it difficult on opposing hitters.
He's only allowing a .312 xwOBA on it, which is good considering he throws that pitch 62.7% of the time and he will be facing the best fastball-hitting team in baseball.
I have the Cubs projected at -112, so I like the value on them at +105.
Pick: Cubs ML (+105) |
