MLB Best Bets: Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday
(Photos: Getty Images) Pictured: Byron Buxton (left) and Jordan Wicks (right).
MLB best bets for Sunday include three expert picks across the 15-game Easter slate, headlined by a pair of bets for the Twins vs Royals series finale.
Our analysts are targeting a moneyline pick and a play on the total for that game, as well as a Jordan Wicks player prop in Cubs vs Rangers.
Here are our MLB best bets and picks for Sunday, March 31.
MLB Best Bets: Odds & Expert Picks for Sunday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting in the Sunday Easter slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
| 2:10 p.m. | ||
| 2:35 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Twins vs. Royals
Are people forgetting how bad Brady Singer was last season? The former first-round pick went 8-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 29 starts. Opponents absolutely teed off on Singer to a 48.6 HardHit% and 91.0 mph average exit velocity, which both ranked in the bottom 6% of the league.
Singer doesn’t miss bats and relies on generating ground balls. He throws a sinker more than 50% of the time and opponents crushed it to a .338 average and .419 wOBA last season. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is it strikes out more than any team in the league, but Singer isn’t going to blow them away.
In two starts against the Twins last season, Singer allowed 10 runs in 7 2/3 innings. The Minnesota roster has a .405 wOBA and .311 average against Singer.
Twins’ pitcher Bailey Ober is coming off a great season, posting a 3.43 ERA and 3.63 xERA. Ober throws strikes, ranking in the top 10% of the league in walk rate, and when he does dive out of the zone, he gets opponents to chase at an elite rate.
The Royals' offense has yet to begin the season, managing just one run in each of their first two games. Kansas City has just 10 total hits so far this season.
Minnesota is the odds-on favorite to win this division, while Kansas City is basically Bobby Witt Jr. and others. Expect the Twins to jump on Singer early while Ober and the Minnesota bullpen keep this subpar Royals offense at bay.
Pick: Twins ML -120 (Bet to -130)
Twins vs. Royals
Bailey Ober had a fantastic season last year, putting up a 3.43 ERA, but he has a couple of problems. First off, he over-performed because his xFIP was almost a full run higher at 4.20. Second, he's a fly ball pitcher, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but when the wind is going to be blowing 14 mph straight out to center field Sunday, that means he may give up a couple of home runs. His fastball only averages 91.3 mph and it's average location is up in the zone. So he is really going to play a dangerous game Sunday.
Brady Singer really struggled in 2023. His ERA was well above five, with his expected ERA at 4.96. Singer's biggest problem is allowing far too much hard contact. Last season he allowed a hard hit rate of 48.6%, which was the highest mark in baseball for qualified starting pitchers. Not only that, but his ability to generate swings and misses has gone down considerably, mainly because his stuff is well below the MLB average, only having a Stuff+ rating of 84.
Singer mainly only throws two pitches: a sinker and a slider. The Twins were top 10 in MLB in xwOBA against the right-handed version of those two pitches and were one of the best lineups in baseball last year against right-handed pitching, ranking fifth in wOBA.
I have 9.8 runs projected for this game, so with the wind blowing like crazy out to center field, I like the value on Over 8.5 runs at -110.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
Cubs vs. Rangers
By Tony Sartori
Chicago hands the ball to left-hander Jordan Wicks on Sunday, and he should be a good fade candidate. He only started seven games in his debut campaign last year, but Wicks posted a fade-worthy 4.41 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Specifically, we are going to fade him in the strikeout department. Although he did not officially qualify, Wicks would have ranked in the bottom 30th percentile among all pitchers in Whiff% and K% in 2023.
Subsequently, he recorded three or fewer strikeouts in five of those seven outings. Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against Texas, a team that ranked in the top 10 of the league last season in K% when facing left-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday's projected starting lineup, four of the Rangers' eight hitters posted a K% south of 22% last year. Rookie Wyatt Langford was drafted in 2023, so he is the "ninth batter" that was left out of that equation.
Pick: Jordan Wicks Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+118 | Bet to +110)
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