MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Diamondbacks vs Angels, More (Friday, June 30)
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Trout.
Ladies and gentlemen, the weekend.
Friday's MLB slate gets going early with Cubs vs. Guardians this afternoon, but there's a whopping 15 games on the slate and plenty of betting value this evening.
Our analysts are on three games tonight with four bets total, including picks for Twins vs. Orioles, Giants vs. Mets and Diamondbacks vs. Angels.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Friday, June 30.
Friday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Twins vs. Orioles
Pablo Lopez has been awesome for the Twins this season. He’s due for a ton of negative regression right now with his ERA being at 4.41, but his xERA being down at 3.11. That 3.11 xERA would be the best mark of his career and the reason why he’s gotten that so low is because he is getting more swings and misses than he ever has with an 11.25 K/9 rate.
His sweeper and curveball have been really good, producing a whiff rate over 37%, but his fastball and changeup also have a whiff rate over 27%, so it should be no surprise that he’s in the 96th percentile among starting pitchers in chase rate.
Lopez has been on point with his control, too, putting up a 107 Location+ rating and his Pitching+ rating of 110 is second in MLB behind only Spencer Strider. The Orioles have been bottom-10 in the league this season in chase rate and have negative run values against changeups, sweepers and curveballs.
Dean Kremer has been significantly worse than his already bad numbers on paper look. His ERA is sitting at 4.5, but his xERA is up at 5.71. He’s in the bottom-10 percentile among MLB starting pitchers in xwOBA, xSLG, and xBA.
Not to mention, he is a very straight-forward pitcher with his three main pitches being a fastball, sinker, and cutter. All three of those pitches are allowing a xwOBA over .350 and have failed to keep the ball off the swept spot as he’s allowing an insanely high 10.7% barrel rate.
The Twins are much better against right handed pitching than they are against lefties ranking 11th in wRC+ versus 27th against lefties.
Minnesota has also been a significantly better defensive team than Baltimore, so I really don’t think this line should be a pick’em for the first five innings. I have the Twins projected at -152 for the first five innings so I love the value on them at -108.
Pick: Twins F5 ML (-115)
Twins vs. Orioles
By Nick Shlain
Pablo Lopez has gone over this number in each of his last three starts. In fact, Lopez has struck out at least nine batters in each of his last three starts.
Lopez has a 30% strikeout percentage this season. The Orioles aren’t a very strikeout-heavy team with a projected lineup that has combined for just a 19% strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching.
Lopez has a 25% strikeout percentage against left-handed hitters compared to a 33% strikeout percentage against right-handed hitters this season. Baltimore’s projected lineup includes mostly left-handed hitters, which actually doesn’t help Lopez in the strikeout department.
However, this number is still low enough that I see value here given Lopez’s recent form.
Giants vs. Mets
Alex Cobb is not an elite pitcher by any stretch of the imagination. I’m not even sure if I would call him good. He has a solid 3.09 ERA but a 4.07 xERA. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate and doesn’t have overpowering stuff.
However, what he does at an elite level is generate groundballs. In fact, he keeps the ball on the ground over 59% of the time, the third-highest rate in the league and just slightly behind his teammate, Logan Webb.
Cobb will frequently allow hard contact, but by keeping the ball on the ground, he can limit the damage. He keeps the ball in the yard and has allowed the 10th-lowest HR/9 in the league.
Carlos Carrasco, on the other hand, allows a ton of hard contact but not on the ground. He has a 2.06 HR/9 rate and ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in hard-hit rate. Carrasco has a 6.19 ERA and 6.22 xERA and his ability to miss bats is basically non-existent.
Expect Carrasco to run into trouble against this San Francisco offense that ranks top 10 in home runs, scoring, wOBA, and wRC+. Moreover, the Giants will be in their better splits against a right-handed pitcher. The Giants are one of those teams that does not have a superstar but has seven guys with a wRC+ above 110.
San Francisco is 10-4 in Cobb's starts this season, and while Cobb and the Giants seem to find ways to win games, the Mets find ways to lose them. These two teams are going in completely opposite directions. New York has lost 18 of its last 24 games and San Francisco has won 17 of its last 24.
The Giants are the better team with the better pitcher, better bullpen and better offense. They should be a much bigger favorite here.
Pick: Giants ML (-118)
Diamondbacks vs. Angels
By D.J. James
Tommy Henry has been flying under the radar for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The 25-year-old ranks in the 88th percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 91st percentile in hard hit rate allowed. His xERA is 4.13 against an ERA of 4.31, so he has some positive regression in the cards as he gets set to face the Los Angeles Angels and Griffin Canning on Friday.
Canning has put up similar numbers to Henry this year with a 4.02 xERA against a 4.00 ERA. That said, he allows hard contact. He ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the 10th percentile in hard hit rate allowed.
The biggest difference in this handicap is how well the D'backs can hit righties. In June, they have a 118 wRC+ with a 9.6% walk rate and 19.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The Angels, on the other hand, have just a 94 wRC+ and .706 OPS this month against southpaws like Henry.
In relief, the D'backs have also been better. They have a 3.95 June xFIP, while Los Angeles has resided at the bottom of the league with a 4.84 June xFIP.
With the starters basically being a wash and the lineup/bullpen advantages going to Arizona, the D'backs should be favored. Bet them to -110.
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