We have a smaller six-game slate today, starting early with Angels vs Tigers at 1:10 PM ET on MLB.TV (Comerica Park), and closing with Astros vs Rangers at 8:05 PM ET on ESPN (Globe Life Field).
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, May 28.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mike Ianniello's Angels vs Tigers Prediction
Both of these teams sit near the bottom of the American League standings and have been very disappointing. It was a little more expected for the Angels than Detroit, but both have underachieved to this point, and offensive woes have been a big reason why.
Detroit has been the worst offense in the American League over the last two weeks. The Tigers are last in scoring, team average, and team OPS over that stretch. They have more strikeouts than any team and have been horrendous with runners in scoring position.
While the Angels have been nothing to write home about, they have at least been a little better at the plate. If both teams have essentially been NBA Jam-style two-man teams this season, I’ll take Trout and Neto over Greene and McGonigle.
As much as Rodriguez looked awful in his first two starts back, it was always going to take him some time to shake the rust off after nearly two years. Hey, even his four-run outing was a big improvement on the seven he allowed in the start prior.
Rodriguez averaged 96.3 miles per hour on his fastball, which is back to where he was prior to the injury, and his slider generated a 34.8% whiff rate. His biggest issue was command. His 13% walk rate so far this season is nearly double what he was posting in Baltimore.
There is always a chance Rodriguez just stinks now and gets shelled for the third time, but we know the talent was in there at one point. I’ll take my chances against this Tigers offense with how they have been hitting the ball recently.
We know what Flaherty is going to be at this point in his career. He has a 0-6 record, and Detroit is 2-9 in his 11 starts. Take the underdog Angels and hope G-Rod can shake off the rust here and that third time’s the charm.
Pick: Angels ML (+105 or Better)
| | | |
Matt Trollo's Braves vs Red Sox Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
We’re double-dipping in Boston on Thursday, and if you didn’t like Tuesday’s coverage of the first game of this series, where the home team lost a nail-biter by one, this one may be just as crazy.
Chris Sale has been spectacular in 2026. Only his third of 10 starts was not a quality start and he’s only allowed more than one run one other time. He’s also completed seven innings in four of his last six starts.
Sale’s estimators, including pitch modeling, are tightly packed between a 2.83 SIERA and 3.04 dERA.
The .236 BABIP and 87 LOB% are regression-worthy, but we know who he is and rightfully fear facing him.
Payton Tolle has only thrown 53 major league innings, but we’re beginning to learn who he is, too, because he’s been almost as good as Sale.
He’s allowed two runs or less in four of six starts with no more than three, including seven and eight-inning outings, plus three starts of eight strikeouts or more.
The 21.4 K-BB% is elite. Tolle’s estimator range is a bit wider (2.12 xERA – 3.53 xFIP), but I only have his performance this season one-third of a run worse than Sale’s.
I’m not in love with xFIP as a tool because it assumes the same HR/FB rate for everyone and therefore punishes extreme fly ball pitchers. Tolle only has a 33 GB%, but with more popups (eight) than barrels (six). How can that be a bad thing?
On that alone, I might be aligned with the market and Sale as a small-to-moderate favorite, but facing LHPs puts Boston in their better splits and Atlanta in their worst.
You see, Drake Baldwin was the top Brave against LHP this year with a wRC+ above 200 in 84 PAs.
Without him, the remaining projected lineup has just an 83 wRC+ vs LHP since last season and 70 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall.
The Red Sox have been awful at home (77 wRC+ not counting Wednesday), but have a 107 wRC+ against LHP this season, with the projected lineup at 104 against southpaws since last season and 112 over the last month overall.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, both teams have strong defenses and bullpens, but the projected Boston defense has an 11 Fielding Run Value edge with half a run better bullpen estimators over the last month.
This assumes Boston overcomes their odd recent Mickey Gasper obsession and goes with the superior defensive catcher (Narvaez) in a day game after a night game.
After a blowout on Wednesday, the Boston bullpen is well rested, too. Chapman and Whitlock haven’t pitched yet this week.
We’re also looking at a more pitcher-friendly forecast at Fenway on Thursday afternoon, one that could actually turn it into a slightly negative run environment, considering Statcast’s new 104 Park Run Factor.
Now that modest starting pitching edge doesn’t look like much for the road team.
I actually rate the F5 line slightly ahead of full game, but like it enough that I'd rather avoid it than embrace its push potential.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-110 or Better) | Under 7 (-110 or Better)
| | | |
Tanner McGrath's Blue Jays vs Orioles Pick
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
This system backs teams in regular-season division games coming off a dominant win over a divisional opponent, leveraging momentum and familiarity in rivalry spots.
It targets games where teams are priced between -135 and +290, and have just completed a win by between six and 21 runs, indicating a strong recent performance.
Layering in a moderate home/away streak and the context of back-to-back division matchups, this strategy aims to exploit situations where public reaction hasn’t fully adjusted to recent blowout results.
The Orioles rocked the Rays on Wednesday, winning 11-2.
I'm banking on Patrick Corbin morphing back into a pumpkin on Thursday. His stuff is still below-average, and his batted-ball profile is still a mess.
Pick: Orioles ML (-140 or Better)
| | | |
Kevork Mahserejian's Astros vs Rangers Prediction
Spencer Arrighetti has exceeded today's 2.5 walks line in all but one start this season. He is averaging four walks per game across his past four starts, with four coming against today's opponent, the Texas Rangers, on May 15.
Ironically, Arrighetti's only start with fewer than three walks is his April 26 start against the New York Yankees. He walked just one batter in seven innings against the league's second-highest BB% against RHP.
The Rangers rank 1oth in walk rate this season versus RHP. They are not at full strength, but remain patient at the plate.
Unfortunately, Arrighetti has been one of the luckiest starting pitchers in baseball this season. If his regression strikes early in this game, it could be a shorter outing than expected.
However, the Rangers may not be the opponent to pile on runs, given their average offensive production all season. With Joc Pederson's patience and recent home run hot streak, he may be a free square at the top of the order.
Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Over 2.5 Walks
| | | |
