MLB Best Bets, Odds: Tuesday’s Picks for Blue Jays vs. Astros & More
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays.
- Tuesday's MLB slate features 17 games, including two doubleheaders.
- Our staff came through with four best bets for Tuesday, including picks for Twins vs. Red Sox, Blue Jays vs. Astros and more.
- Check out all four of our best bets for Tuesday's MLB slate below.
Tuesday's MLB slate is as full as it gets, featuring 17 games, including two doubleheaders.
With so much going on in the Show, our staff came through with four best bets for Tuesday's games: Giants vs. Marlins, Twins vs. Red Sox, Rangers vs. Royals and Blue Jays vs. Astros.
Check out all four best bets for Tuesday's MLB games below — and be sure to come back tomorrow for even more MLB betting coverage.
Tuesday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Giants vs. Marlins
Tuesday, April 18 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Marlins F5 +100  |
It’s early to make sweeping generalizations, but the Fish may have fixed their southpaw problem.
After finishing dead last in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers last season (by a whopping 10 percentage points), Miami is currently top-10 in that stat through 17 games this year (114). And when taking on lefties at LoanDepot, the Marlins jump to sixth in that metric (133).
The good news for the above-.500 Fish is they’re catching Alex Wood at home on Tuesday. And Wood is begging for regression.
Wood has a 1.17 ERA through two starts this year, but he couples that with a 4.83 xERA and 6.25 xFIP. Part of that is he has yet to give up a home run, and he’s due for plenty of those with his career 12% HR/FB rate.
But mostly, Wood’s batted-ball profile is just bad:
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Edward Cabrera is off to a rough start, but that’s because of his Mets curse. Cabrera has a 6.65 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in six career starts against New York but a 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 18 career starts against everyone else.
And poor Edward has had to face the Mets twice this season, where he walked a ridiculous 13 batters over 6.2 innings.
But, once Cabrera faced a non-Mets opponent, he settled in fine. Cabrera posted five innings of two-run ball against the red-hot Phillies offense at Citizens Bank Park, striking out four to only one walk.
Cabrera has ace-level stuff, and I’m hoping he flashes that today at home against a non-New York opponent.
The Giants have been smashing right-handed pitching (second in wRC+ at 130), but I expect some regression there (19th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching). And the Giants aren’t playing great ball right now, while the Fish have built serious early-season momentum.
I would bet Miami for the full game, but the Marlins used four of their top relievers in the series-opening win last night, while the Giants' pen is fresh.
So, instead, I’ll bank on the Fish handing Wood a much-deserved rough start while Cabrera finally posts a much-deserved quality one and take Miami as short home dogs in the first half.
Pick: Marlins F5 +100 |
Twins vs. Red Sox
Tuesday, April 18 7:10 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Red Sox TT Under 4.5 (-120)  |
By D.J. James
Sonny Gray throws against Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday.
Sale has been underwhelming to start the season, to say the least. He used to be a Cy Young contender and now holds an 11.25 ERA, so he needs to bounce back. However, it may not be in this game, as this bet is more so on the Twins’ side.
Gray has been phenomenal with a 0.53 ERA and 3.17 xERA this season. His walk rate is a bit questionable, but he should be able to mow down a weaker Boston lineup. The Red Sox have an 8.3% walk rate and a 96 wRC+ against righties, so this is a step down from what most teams have seen in Boston lately.
Outside of Justin Turner and Rafael Devers, no one else on the Red Sox has a .340+ xwOBA off of right-handed curveballs and sliders, which are the two most-utilized pitches for Gray. He should hold this lineup in check, especially if they're not taking walks.
Out of the bullpen, Minnesota touts a 3.51 xFIP, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Twins are walking less than 8% of hitters and striking out nearly 27%.
Overall, this should lead to a tough game for Boston hitters, except maybe Devers and the middle of the order. Minnesota’s pitching is solid, and if Sale has another brutal outing, the Red Sox bats may be a bit out of it.
Take the Red Sox team total under 4.5 (-120), and play it to 4 (-120).
Pick: Red Sox TT Under 4.5 (-120)
Rangers vs. Royals
Tuesday, April 18 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Under 4.5 (+105)  |
By Jim Turvey
As you can probably guess from the bet type, this is a matchup of two starting pitchers I quite like quite a bit.
Starting with the home team, Brad Keller has been really solid this season, with a 2.12 ERA that certainly has a little bit of luck baked in (3.97 FIP). But he's doing a much better job at limiting hard contact in his first 17 innings, with a .204 xBA and .355 xSLG that both mark notable improvements from last season.
This play pivots around the other pitcher, though.
Nathan Eovaldi has not started the season as well as Keller, but that's only from a surface level. His 6.32 ERA may make under bettors shudder, but everything is still looking great under the hood.
His FIP (2.30) actually ranks in the top 10 among starting pitchers this season. He hasn't allowed a barrel all season, and he's been getting BABIP'd to death with a .444 batting average on balls in play against so far (league average at .297).
Eovaldi has done a great job of increasing his groundball rate, and he gets a great matchup on Tuesday. The Royals are hitting a measly .206/.268/.321 against right-handed pitchers for a wRC+ of 61 that ranks at the bottom of the entire league.
I would play under 4.5 to -120.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (+105) |
Blue Jays vs. Astros
Tuesday, April 18 8:10 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 9 |
By Nick Shlain
The Houston Astros ambushed the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday night, scoring seven runs in the first inning on their way to a 9-2 victory. There still might be more fireworks to go in this series.
Tuesday’s projected starters are Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays and Jose Urquidy for the Astros. One of my favorite bets on the slate for Tuesday is over nine total runs at -105 at FanDuel.
So far this season, Bassitt is struggling. He has a 6.49 xFIP, 17% strikeout percentage and 11% walk percentage compared to last year’s 4.21 xFIP, 22% strikeout percentage and 6% walk percentage. He’s also allowed a .536 ISO to left-handed hitters this year, which plays right into the hands of Astros hitters Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker.
Urquidy’s numbers are closer to what he did last season, but he also wasn’t especially good last season. He posted a 5.00 xFIP last year and owns a 5.39 xFIP this year. Last year, he allowed a .205 ISO to right-handed hitters and a .180 ISO to left-handed hitters.
He’ll allow power to hitters from both sides of the plate, but the Blue Jays have mostly right-handed hitters who will take advantage of his reverse splits.
I have this game projected for 10 runs total, giving us value at this number.
Pick: Over 9 |
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