Sunday MLB Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our 2 Favorite Bets, Including Cardinals vs. Rockies & Red Sox vs. Athletics (July 4)
Matthew StockmanGetty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Germán Márquez.
- We have another huge slate of games on Sunday's Major League Baseball card.
- Analysts Mike Ianniello and Kenny Ducey unveil their best bets on the stacked 16-game card.
- Check out below where they've found betting value in their selections.
We have a completely stacked 16-game card on Sunday’s Major League Baseball schedule, meaning there will be plenty of action on the Fourth of July across the country.
Analysts Mike Ianniello and Kenny Ducey each have a best bet for you on the slate, with a matchup coming from both the American League and National League lineups.
Let’s take a look at their top selections from two of the day’s matinee games and see where they’ve found betting value.
MLB Odds & Picks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Mike Ianniello: I saw this pitching matchup earlier this week and gasped. I think Lizzie Mcguire wrote a song about this game, because this is the stuff that dreams are made of. Carlos Martinez vs. Germán Márquez at Coors Field.
Let’s start with Márquez. He’s awesome. In 17 starts this season, he has a 3.62 ERA and has been brilliant lately, outside of one bad start. In his last eight outings, he has allowed one run or fewer in seven of them, including an gem in his last appearance. Márquez took a no-hitter into the ninth and allowed just one hit in a complete-game shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates last week.
Coors Fields is always a daunting task for pitchers, but not for Márquez, who is 6-1 with a 3.06 ERA in Denver this season. The thin air doesn’t make an impact when the ball is constantly on the ground and Márquez’s 54.3% ground ball rate is the second best in the league.
Márquez has allowed just two home runs at home all season and his 0.63 HR/9 rate is the sixth best in baseball. When he faced the Cardinals earlier this season, he allowed just one earned run over six innings in St. Louis.
Opposing Márquez will be Carlos Martinez. To put it kindly, Martinez stinks. He is my favorite pitcher to fade, as the former All-Star has a nice fat 6.38 ERA and is 4-9 this season. During June, he went 1-5 with a 10.87 ERA.
Teams have an expected batting average of .280 and wxwOBA of .368 against Martinez this year, plus he ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA, xBA, xwOBA and K%. The Rockies have been horrible on the road, yet still managed to go into St. Louis and tune up Martinez for five runs in five innings this year.
Colorado has some strange voodoo going on in Denver right now, where it magically becomes the best team in baseball at home. They average 5.72 runs per game at Coors Field this season. They have the best home batting average in the league and rank second in OPS.
The Rockies are an incredible 30-17 at Coors Field and 17-5 in their last 22 games in Denver. They have their best pitcher on the mound against one of the worst pitchers in the league.
I absolutely love the Rockies in this spot and would play them on the ML, in the First Five or on the Run Line at -1.5 at +110 or better.
Boston Red Sox vs. Oakland Athletics
Kenny Ducey: Boston’s magical winning streak has finally come to an end, making them the slightest bit easier to fade in this spot.
James Kaprielian has quickly turned himself into an effective pitcher, allowing more than three earned runs in a start just once and averaging six strikeouts over his past five outings. His fastball has posed issues for some of the league’s best offenses and Sunday will be no different.
Why? Well, Boston is just 14th in weighted runs per 100 pitches against the fastball, producing 0.17 this year. It has been Kaprielian’s weapon of choice, though six of the eight homers he’s allowed this year have come off fastballs, so perhaps this is a game where his arsenal is that much more effective.
I say all of that because as we’ve seen in this series, there’s not much separating these two offenses. There is, however, an edge here with Kaprielian over Nick Pivetta, a pitcher I briefly thought might have been good for a short time in June before he stumbled back into Nick Pivetta-ness.
The A’s actually now have better numbers against righties than lefties, and should stay hot at home against the former Phillie and his deteriorating strikeout and walk numbers.