Tuesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Sept. 22)

Athletics vs. Dodgers Odds

Odds updated as of Tuesday at 7:20 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Both Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Dodgers have locked up their spots in the postseason.

Now, they are playing for better seeding.

With a win tonight, the Dodgers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the National League. On the other side, the A's need some help improving their seed as they trail the Chicago White Sox by a half game for the No. 2 seed and Tampa Bay Rays by 3.5 games for the top seed.

Los Angeles will send young ace Dustin May to the mound, with the hope he can put a bow on whats been a fantastic regular season for the club.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Oakland Athletics

Despite their fantastic record, the A's have been below average offensively. They have the 16th best wOBA (.315) and 15th best wRC+(102) in MLB this year. Oakland's below average offense has been in a big time slump this past week, as it hit for a measly .188 average and a .251 wOBA in their last five games. The A's really miss star third baseman Matt Chapman in the batting order and haven't been able to replace his kind of production.

A's Probable Starter

Frankie Montas, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Frankie Montas started out 2020 on a tear, but has fallen off a cliff since. His ERA is 5.86 and xFIP is up at 4.66. Most of his issues have to do with his command, as his BB/9 rate is at 4.19 and WHIP at 1.53. Those control issue won't get any better facing a Top 3 MLB offense.

As far as his pitch arsenal is concerned, Montas is struggling with his sinker. He's allowed .313 average and .390 wOBA to opponents this season. His slider and fastball have been halfway decent, but since he throws his sinker almost 40% of the time, those two pitches haven't been able to offset his struggles. He's going to have a really tough matchup against a Dodgers lineup that is the second-best team in baseball against right-handed pitching and sinkers.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers lineup has been on fire over the past two weeks, hitting 21 home runs that has led to a .352 wOBA and 124 wRC+. Los Angeles has done most of its damage against right-handed pitching, with a .356 wOBA and 125 wRC+, which is the second-best mark in Major League Baseball. Mookie Betts and Corey Seager have two of the best hitters in baseball this season and have been crushing right-handed pitching, both boasting wOBAs more than .415.

The Dodgers have also been successful against sinker, with 45.8 weighted sinker runs. So, they'll have a great matchup against Montas.

Dodgers Probable Starter

Dustin May, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

The Dodgers' 22-year-old rookie Dustin May looks like their ace of the future. He has electric stuff that leads off with a sinker/two-seam type pitch that can top out at 99 mph with crazy movement. As you see, it's almost un-hittable.

He's drawing a lot of comparisons to Jacob deGrom right now. The reason? the May has an insane combination of velocity and movement. He's been able to keep opposing hitters at bay with it, only allowing a .263 average to his competition. He also has sick cutter he likes to use to go away from righties and in on lefties. He then has a drop-off-the-table curveball, which has generated a 37.1% whiff rate this year.

May should have a fantastic matchup against a slumping A's lineup.

Bullpens

This series will feature two of the league's best bullpens. Both rank in the Top 5 in terms of xFIP and have been the main reason for each team's success. As you can see from the table above, the bullpen matchup is pretty much a wash.

Projections and Pick

I think the starting pitching and offensive matchup give the Dodgers a big advantage. Based on my projections, I think Los Angeles is undervalued at home. So, I am going backing Los Angeles at -159 (DraftKings) and I would bet it up to -175.

Pick: Dodgers -159