Happy Fourth of July!
How are you spending your holiday? If you are like most Americans, Independence Day is a time to be with family and friends. That’s not possible for road teams in baseball, which creates an edge for the home side.
At least that is how my theory goes. To find out if my hypothesis is correct, I dove into the Bet Labs database to check the data.
Since 2005, home teams in the regular season have gone 19,010-16,229-4 (53.9%) straight up (SU). A $100 bettor would be down $54,654 wagering on every team with home field advantage.
On the Fourth of July the team playing in front of the hometown crowd has an impressive 128-80 (61.5%) record. Instead of busting your bankroll, these home teams have returned a $2,132 profit for a $100 gambler.
Home teams have been more profitable to bet on when our nation celebrates its independence if the line moves in their direction — meaning they become a bigger favorite or smaller underdog.
This is an incredibly small sample size, especially for baseball, though the trend holds for Memorial Day, another summer holiday, as home teams have gone 78-45 (63.4%) producing a $1,758 profit for a $100 bettor.
Still small samples and questionable theories are a good way to go bust. If you are going to bet on a team playing at home on Thursday don’t let this trend be the only reason.
Home Teams with Positive Line Movement
- Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians (1:15 p.m. ET)
- Oakland Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins (4:07 p.m. ET)
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox (7:07 p.m. ET)
