MLB Expert Picks Today | Bets on Astros vs Twins, Athletics vs Rays, More on Friday, April 7
Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Eflin
Twenty-eight of the 30 teams in MLB will play on Friday, with a number of home openers across baseball. The season is only a week old, but there's a clear trend toward a higher run scoring environment. The increased run scoring has less to do with the rule changes and more to do with the decreased drag on the baseballs in flight.
There are early indicators that the drag is closer to the 2018 and early 2021 levels. That's not to say that the balls are anywhere near 2019 levels, but they clearly are flying further than the 2022 balls.
This chart from Baseball Savant shows the drag on the baseballs and could be why run scoring is up again. The market will adjust eventually, but overs have hit at 57% so far this season.
Here are my thoughts on some of the 14 games across MLB today:
Marlins at Mets, 1:10 p.m. ET
Edward Cabrera vs. Tylor Megill
The first game of the day is a rematch from last week's matchup in Miami, where the Marlins closed as a favorite. Even if you bump the Mets for the win and solid Megill outing, and flip home field, it doesn't get you to the current number with Miami at +150.
The Marlins still have the starting pitcher advantage. Cabrera is the better pitcher by a few tenths of a run by projected ERA and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is still in the lineup despite an injury scare on Wednesday. Cabrera's power sinker and slider combination both graded out well above average in that start, even if his command is inconsistent and difficult to rely on.
Megill was solid in the big leagues in an MLB cameo last year, but there are some troubling indicators for him from spring training.
Megill registered a 91.9 Stuff+ in spring training, which is considerably lower than his 110 Stuff+ in MLB in 2022. The decline in stuff continued into his first start of the season, which was just 93 based on the model from Eno Sarris from The Athletic. Megill had a 30.4% K rate in his first start but gave up a ton of hard contact.
Given the underlying process stats and pitch shapes, there's a lot more downside risk for Megill's K rate. I'd bet the Marlins at +140 or better as Miami gets a second chance at Megill in a week.
Pick: Miami +140 or better
Reds at Phillies, 3:10 p.m. ET
Hunter Greene vs. Zack Wheeler
Citizens Bank Park is the second biggest wind-adjusted ballpark in baseball. Only Wrigley Field has a bigger impact on the run environment depending on the direction of the wind. It will be blowing across the ballpark, in from left field on Friday at 10-15 mph for most of the game and that should come as a relief for Reds starter Hunter Greene.
Greene has had home run problems for most of his young MLB career and now gets to face a depleted Phillies lineup already without Bryce Harper and now without Darick Hall after the first baseman went to the injured list on Friday.
Greene has the stuff to frustrate and generate plenty of swings and misses on Friday. His fastball and slider both grade out as elite pitches, and his projected ERA could get as low as 3.10 based on his Stuff+ numbers and average Location+ numbers. He's still below the level of Zack Wheeler, though, and the Phillies have the better lineup and bullpen.
The once feared Phillies lineup looks considerably more thin at the moment because of injury. Most Phillies fans hadn't even heard of Jake Cave and Kody Clemens, but both of them will feature in the home opener lineup on Friday.
I'd bet the under 7.5 because of the wind, but wouldn't bet it any lower than that because of the volatility of Greene's command.
Pick: Under 7.5
Mariners at Guardians, 4:10 p.m. ET
Logan Gilbert vs. Aaron Civale
Logan Gilbert had an xERA around 4.10 for both of his first two major league seasons. He has the potential to further develop his arsenal and improve, but I'm not willing to bump him much more until we get more data than one start in 2023. The start was encouraging — he struck out seven in six innings and only walked one. Now he gets a rematch with the same lineup, while the Mariners will see Aaron Civale for the first time.
There's a small edge to the hitters in this scenario, in my opinion, when you get to see the same pitcher twice in a week.
Civale's curveball graded out as one of the best curveballs among MLB starters in the first week of the seasons. It forced eight batted ball events in his first starts, with zero hits and a .125 xBA. Using projected ERA, Civale is the marginally better starting pitcher here.
There's also an edge for the Guardians in the matchup as a whole. Cleveland's lineup and bullpen are pretty similar in talent and expected production to the Mariners overall, but the Guards are at home and have the better defense. I'd bet them to -125 on the moneyline.
Pick: Cleveland -125 or better
Astros vs. Twins, 4:10 p.m. ET
Jose Urquidy vs. Sonny Gray
Jose Urquidy's stuff doesn't grade out nearly as well for his career away from home, and the market doesn't downgrade him enough when he's pitching away from Houston. His Stuff+ in 2022 was above average at home, but below average on the road. That manifests itself in the strikeout rate, which dips considerably on the road and leads to a considerably worse K/BB rate.
Sonny Gray is already the better pitcher, but the gap grows even further with Urquidy on the road. There aren't really concerns about the Twins deciding to rest or load manage their starters — notably Byron Buxton and Max Kepler — because Minnesota had off on Thursday.
Because of injuries to key hitters Michael Brantley and Jose Altuve, this isn't the same fearsome and deep Astros lineup. Regular starts for David Hensley, Chris Julks and Chas McCormack leave this lineup much more thin than Minnesota's from top to bottom.
I'd bet Minnesota at -130 or better because of Urquidy's splits and trust the considerably better starter at home.
Pick: Minnesota -130 or better
Athletics at Rays, 6:40 p.m. ET
Ken Waldichuk vs. Zach Eflin
The Rays' pitching factory may have unlocked another gem with Zach Eflin. They have him throwing a new changeup with funky movement that produced a ton of whiffs in his first start. His sinker is sinking more and he's throwing his best pitch — the curveball — with more movement and more velocity.
He should beat his preseason pitching projections and now gets a very friendly matchup with the Athletics lineup at home. Eflin had solid underlying numbers in Philadelphia and now could go even lower to the low 3s ERA in Tampa Bay with the reworked pitches.
There's more concern about Ken Waldichuk, whose fastball graded poorly in his first start of the year when he gave up three homers to Logan O'Hoppe, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. Waldichuk will always have the elite slider, but his fastball needs to be better to beat his projections.
I'm still high on Waldichuk too and thus will bet the under 7.5 here at -110 or better. One bad start shouldn't lower the outlook on him too much.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-110 or better)
Blue Jays at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET
Chris Bassitt vs. Patrick Sandoval
The market steamed up to 9.5 on the full game market this morning, and I think the move is an overreaction to the point where I'm willing to bet against it now. Chris Bassitt had a terrible first start and that immediately followed a drop in velocity during spring training. It's not all that different from teammate Alek Manoah, who had a brutal Opening Day vs. St. Louis before shutting down Kansas City on Wednesday night in his second start.
Even though I'm down on Bassitt generally, he has enough pitch variety and command to the point where he shouldn't be downgraded this much. The total jumping this high is an overreaction to one start in which he was poor.
Patrick Sandoval has been about a ~3.7 ERA pitcher for the last two full seasons and his Pitching+ projected ERA sits at 3.78 in 2023. Even though the Toronto offense is in its better split against left-handed pitching, this total became inflated this morning and I'm going to bet the first five under 5 at -110 or better.
Both bullpens have major depth questions and I'm removing them from this handicap.
Pick: First five innings under 5 (-110 or better)
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