MLB Predictions, 2024 Odds, Future Best Bets
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MLB predictions and picks from Action Network's expert bettors are being made throughout spring training, with best bets on win totals, World Series, awards, player props and more.
The 2024 MLB regular season is set to begin on March 20 when the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet in a two-game series in Seoul, South Korea. The full Opening Day for the 2024 season will take place on Thursday, March 28 with all 30 teams in action.
This piece will be continuously updated throughout the month leading up to Opening Day. As our experts place MLB bets, you'll be able to find them here. You should also follow them on the Action Network app, where they log their bets in real-time.
For updated MLB odds on all 2024 futures at a variety of sportsbooks, be sure to visit and bookmark our MLB odds page.
MLB Futures Odds, Predictions 2024: Baseball Best Bets, Expert Picks
Sean Zerillo: While the public projection (range 95-101) likes the Under on the Braves' win total, it still shows value in their odds to win the NL East, make the playoffs and win the World Series.
The divisional and playoff odds are somewhat prohibitive; still, there is a significant edge between -537 (84.3% implied) projected and listed odds of -240 (70.6% implied).
I prefer to bet the Braves to win the World Series at this stage. Public projections put them as low as +475 (17.4% implied) and as high as +288 (25.8% implied); you can +650 (13.33% implied) at bet365. Atlanta was +250 at the start of the playoffs last season.
Pick: Braves to Win World Series (+650 at bet365)
Sean Zerillo: The Brewers never rebuild — they only reload. And despite a potentially wonky starting rotation, Milwaukee is the projected top defensive team in the league and has the best bullpen baseball. The Brewers should continue to excel at run prevention, even if they deploy their pitchers a bit more unorthodox than other teams.
I would bet the Brewers' Over to 79 — at nearly a four-win differential compared to my projection and nearly a three-win differential compared to the composite projection.
Additionally, even the public projection (range 79-81) sees value in Milwaukee to make the playoffs (projected +214) and to win the NL Central (projected +456), with the most optimistic forecasts sitting at +185 and +388, respectively. And I'm more optimistic about the Brewers than the public projection market.
Considering the potential that their division-mates continue to add, I will only play Milwaukee's Over and divisional odds for now, but may add the playoff bet closer to Opening Day.
Pick: Brewers Over 75.5 Wins (-110 at ESPN BET)
Sean Paul: I know it’s not pretty, but the Kansas City Royals made moves.
The American League Central is regularly the most underwhelming division in the American League. For instance, just look at the AL East, where all five teams could feasibly finish above .500. If multiple teams finish over .500 in the AL Central, it’ll feel like a successful season.
The Minnesota Twins remain the heavy favorites (-110) after winning the division with 87 wins last season. The Twins didn’t do much in the offseason to improve unless you think 36-year old Carlos Santana or serviceable outfielder Manny Margot is making a seismic difference.
That opens the door for a team to emerge if the Twins regress — and I’m eyeing the Kansas City Royals (+850) to win the American League Central.
While most teams kept the wallets closed in a relatively lean offseason in terms of top-tier free agents, the Royals made massive improvements in a few key areas. Namely, the starting rotation, adding Seth Lugo (3.57 era in 146 innings for the Padres) and Michael Wacha (3.22 era in 134 IP for the Padres.) Those two established veteran arms will support rising star Cole Ragans, who posted an 2.64 ERA in 12 starts with 89 strikeouts over 71 2/3 innings after coming over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman trade. That’s a strong top-three rotation members.
Then you piece in the starting lineup with established names like Bobby Witt Jr and Salvador Perez with lottery ticket pieces Nelson Velázquez (posted .888 OPS with Royals) and first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Don’t sleep on Witt, who the Royals just locked up for the foreseeable future. He popped 30 homers last season, plays strong defense at shortstop and posted a 117 wRC+.
The lineup isn’t amazing, the rotation is just solid and the bullpen brought in reliable arms to supplement losing arms it offloaded in July’s trade deadline. There’s nothing crazy about the Royals, except Witt could develop into an MVP candidate and if Ragans' small 12 start sample proves legitimate, he’ll contend for the AL Cy Young.
Plus, the Guardians and White Sox starting slow could prompt them to deal aces Shane Bieber and Dylan Cease at the deadline. While the Tigers are still paying the Javier Báez albatross contract and mostly only made marginal moves to improve.
The only team who willingly spent money in the AL Central is the Royals, and I could see that willingness leading to a surprise run for the division title.
Pick: Royals to Win AL Central (+850 at DraftKings)
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Charlie DiSturco: I’m willing to zig while everyone is zagging on the Baltimore Orioles.
This team made a statement with the acquisition of Corbin Burnes — it's going all-in. Fresh off a 101-win season, the Orioles' win total is currently listed 10 wins lower at ESPN BET (91.5, -105). I believe that is an inflated number and am willing to fade last season’s darling.
For starters, the injuries have begun to pour in. Kyle Bradish has a partial UCL tear and is trying to avoid surgery. He will begin the year on the injured list. All-Star closer and AL reliever of the year Felix Bautista is scheduled to miss the entire season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
John Means will begin the year on the IL and Gunnar Henderson (oblique) is nursing an injury himself. It’s starting to already become a laundry list and the preseason has just begun.
The Orioles' starting rotation behind Burnes and second-year pro Grayson Rodriguez is bleak. The bullpen overperformed last season and without Bautista, should negatively regress in a significant way. This is all happening in the hardest division in baseball — where all five teams are projected around 80 wins or more.
When looking at projections across the board, the Orioles sit in the mid-80s. PECOTA has Baltimore at 86.9 wins and FanGraphs and Davenport both have them at 85.
I’m not saying this isn’t a World Series-caliber team, nor am I betting on them to miss the playoffs. But this win total is a tad overinflated given the level of competition in the East and the injuries that have begun to pile up.
Pick: Orioles Under 91.5 Wins (-105 at ESPN BET)
Alex Hinton: Over the last two seasons, nine hitters have hit at least 40 homers in a season, with Kyle Schwarber doing it twice. Juan Soto is not part of that group, but he enters 2024 in a great position to set a career-high in home runs.
With Soto joining the Yankees this offseason following the trade with the Padres, he will play half of his games at Yankee Stadium. While Soto has power to all fields, the short porch in right field makes Yankee Stadium one of the most favorable ballparks for left-handed power hitters. He also joins a division with other hitters ballparks, such as Rogers Centre and Fenway Park.
Soto is one of the most disciplined hitters in the league. He has drawn 100 or more walks in each of the last four full seasons. As a result, Soto loses some chances to hit home runs by drawing walks.
However, Soto will most likely bat second in Aaron Boone’s lineup and in front of Aaron Judge. While Soto will draw his share of walks, the idea of facing Judge with a man or two on base is not very fun for many pitchers. The protection from Judge will give Soto better pitches to hit.
Judge is also a candidate to lead the MLB in home runs. He already led the American League in home runs in his rookie year in 2017 and then led the majors when he hit 62 home runs in 2022. However, Judge has missed time with injuries and said recently that the toe injury he suffered last season will likely be something he has to manage for the rest of his career.
Judge still finished 10th in the MLB in home runs last season, but he was limited to 106 games. Let’s assume Judge does not have any lengthy IL stints this season, but while managing his toe, he plays 140 games. Soto played in every game last season and he has played in at least 151 games in each of the last three years. If Soto plays 20 more games than Judge, that is potentially 60-80 more at-bats he will have more over him. That difference could amount to six to eight home runs and enough to give him an edge in this race.
Additionally, there is value on Soto in this market compared to the AL MVP odds. Judge is the betting favorite to lead the MLB in home runs at +375 on ESPN BET. He is also the favorite for AL MVP at +550 while Soto is +600. For Soto to win MVP over Judge, he will likely need to hit more home runs than him given that Judge is the better defender of the two.
I’ll take the value on Soto here and also in comparison to DraftKings where this line is priced at +900.
Pick: Juan Soto Regular Season Home Run Leader (+1500 at ESPN BET)
Mike Ianniello: Entering his third MLB season, if Julio Rodriguez isn’t considered one of the faces of baseball, he will be after this year. It’s hard to call his 2023 All-Star campaign, which saw him hit 32 home runs with 103 RBI, a disappointment, but I think many people expected even more out of Rodriguez’s sophomore campaign.
After a slow start, Rodriguez was only batting .249 at last season’s All-Star break with a .314 wOBA and 103 wRC+. But he turned it on in the second half of the season, batting .308 with a wOBA of .391 and wRC+ of 156 to end the season. He hit 19 home runs in the second half of the year.
So, what changed? When you look at his batted ball numbers, his HardHit% actually dropped over the second half, and his groundball rate didn’t change much either. His big change was an emphasis on pulling the ball more, increasing his Pull% from 37.1% to 47.9%.
Even with the slow start in 2023, Rodriguez finished fourth in MVP voting. With Shohei Ohtani off to the National League, the AL race is wide open. Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are the two favorites at the top of the MVP odds followed by Yordan Alvarez and Corey Seager.
The pair of teammates could end up sharing the spotlight in New York, and Judge and Alvarez have both missed time in recent years. What sets Rodriguez apart from the others is his combination of power and speed. He is one of just two players in the American League to tally 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year. He was the only player in MLB to be in the 90th percentile in batting, baserunning and fielding run value. The only other players to post a 30-30 season before the age of 23 are Ronald Acuña Jr, Mike Trout and Alex Rodriguez — all former MVP winners.
Rodriguez’s ability to affect the game in all three phases make him a WAR darling. FanGraphs projects him to finish third in the AL in WAR, just 0.4 behind Judge and Soto. Given the way J-Rod ended the 2023 season, if he can maintain a pace even close to that for the entire season, he will win the MVP.
I love getting anything above +1000 for Rodriguez.
Pick: Julio Rodriguez AL MVP (+1200 at FanDuel)
Brad Cunningham: This line is way too high for Sonny Gray.
If he is going to hit this over, two things have to happen: First, he is going to have to stay healthy and start 30+ games, which he has only done once 2019. He's had a history of injuring his hamstring multiple times and left his most recent spring training start with hamstring tightness, which is not a good sign.
Secondly, if he's not going to pitch every available start, he has to maintain a 10+ K/9 rate like he did when he was with the Reds. The problem is he's now gone two straight seasons of having under a nine K/9 rate with the Twins. Most projection models even have him closer to a 8.5 K/9 rate.
The reason for his drop in K% from his time in Cincinnati is that he's almost abandoned throwing his sinker, which is the pitch that generated his highest percentage of strikeouts from 2019 to 2021. He's now basically only relying on his sweeper to get all of his strikeouts. It's a fantastic pitch that generates a 41.3% whiff rate, but it accounted for 106 of his 184 strikeouts last year.
The chances of Gray staying healthy for a full season and increasing his K/9 rate up above nine is pretty slim, so I like the value on his under 170.5 strikeouts.
Pick: Sonny Gray Under 170.5 Strikeouts (-110 at bet365)
Ownership and management of the Cincinnati Reds did not expect the team to blossom as fast as it did in the 2023 season. While no major contributors were added to the team, the Reds made considerable moves in December with productive role players.
The rotation of Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft and Nick Lodolo are all expected to improve from their high-ERA and injury-plagued seasons. Infielder Matt McLain will return to a lineup after a stellar rookie season, only to be in the shadows of Elly De La Cruz.
Cincinnati won 82 games a season ago, a number Davenport and ZIPS expect the Reds to repeat. In a division with contenders that have plenty of questions, Reds management may be the biggest investors at the trade deadline for a division and playoff push.
Pick: Reds to win NL Central (+340 at DraftKings)
John Feltman: These odds are way too juicy to pass up. Considering that Shohei Ohtani is now in the National League, this opens up an opportunity for someone to rise in the American League and enter the MVP conversation.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a damn good baseball player. The 23-year-old swatted 30 HRs last season, and you could argue his ceiling has not been reached. Not only did he flash the power, but he 49 swiped bags and tallied 96 RBI.
Witt hit .276, but I'd argue that the average can climb even higher. His walk rate slightly increased, and his K-rate also declined.
Taking a deeper look into his batted ball, his soft contact decreased, while his medium and hard hit percentages increased. He finished the season with a 5.7 WAR, which was fourth in the AL.
The Royals are a legitimate dark horse in the AL Central considering the White Sox are entering a full rebuild, and the Guardians and Twins are not head and shoulders above them in the talent department. The young core that they are starting to put together is extremely talented, and their rotation is improved.
Witt has smashed three taters in spring thus far, and I smell another monster season from him. With Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge already dealing with nagging injuries in spring, it is never a guarantee that he stays fully healthy.
A price of 20-1 is ridiculously long for a player like Witt, and if the Royals end up contending for the postseason it will be mostly because of Witt's production. Do not be surprised to see the young phenom SS take another step forward and put up even more ridiculous numbers in 2024.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. AL MVP (+2000 at BetRivers)
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