MLB Home Run Bets: Dinger Tuesday Picks (May 28)

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One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.

The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.

Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.

Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.

If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.

Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.

Here are my three favorite MLB home run bets for Dinger Tuesday on May 28.

Tuesday, May 28
6:40 p.m. ET
Masyn Winn (+630)

It's a fun Dinger Tuesday, with games in both Cincinnati and Colorado. Given the boost to offenses in both parks, that makes it fairly easy to hit the max $25 free bet with just a couple of home run picks. We have the Reds game projected for better than three homers by itself.

I'm looking to the Cardinals here, thanks to the pitching matchup.

They're facing lefty Andrew Abbott, who has a career flyball rate north of 50%. He's allowed two more home runs than his counterpart Kyle Gibson this year despite pitching fewer innings.

All of those home runs have been hit by righties, which further narrows down the search.

The chalk options are Nolan Arenado (+330) and Paul Goldschmidt (+350), two veterans with solid career numbers against lefties and a track record of power. However, I don't love either at their prices.

Instead, I'm targeting leadoff hitter Masyn Winn. The sophomore shortstop has just two home runs this season, but he also has a 5.1% HR/FB ratio. That's less than half the league average. Part of that is explained by a home ballpark that's well below average for home runs, while the rest is probably bad luck.

The first factor is certainly improved today, and let's see if he can get luck to break his way as well.

Pick: Masyn Winn to hit a Home Run (+630, FanDuel)

Tuesday, May 28
7:40 p.m. ET
Danny Jansen (+340)

This game is among the leaders in projected home runs, but it's almost entirely one-way traffic.

The Blue Jays are doing the heavy lifting here, mainly because of the pitching matchup.

They're taking on Mike Clevinger, who's already allowed four home runs through just 16 innings in 2024. His flyball rate is near 50%, and he's allowing plenty of hard contact.

The two best options for Toronto are catcher Danny Jansen (+340) and first basemen Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350). Both have five home runs on the season, though Jansen has considerably fewer at-bats. Jansen also has a much higher fly-ball rate (57.1%), more than double that of Guerrero's.

It's close either way, as Guerrero has a much better hard-hit rate. However, it doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it's not in the air, so I'll take Jansen at a similar price point as my official pick, but I'm making a bet on both players.

Pick: Danny Jansen to hit a Home Run (+340, FanDuel)

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Tuesday, May 28
9:39 p.m. ET
Alex Verdugo (+540)

I was somewhat surprised to realize that Angel Stadium is among the best home run parks in baseball, boosting dingers by about 15% — surprisingly higher than Coors Field. This game also features two starting pitchers with well above-average flyball rates, making it a solid choice for trying to maximize the bonus award on FanDuel.

Furthermore, the Angels have an above-average lineup against lefties and are taking on southpaw Nestor Cortes, while New York has hit righties better than any team in baseball.

Aaron Judge (+210) and Juan Soto (+255) are the "safe" choices (as much as any home run bet can be safe) but neither are good values based on the short prices.

It's also worth noting that Canning has been much worse against left-handed hitting this season, allowing a .399 wOBA compared to just .267 against righties.

That leaves me with Anthony Rizzo (+500) and Alex Verdugo (+540) as my favorite choices.

I'm going with Verdugo.

He has a better hard-hit-and-barrel rate than Rizzo and is more likely to see good pitches by virtue of hitting between Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Additionally, Rizzo had a hot stretch in late April but has cooled off since, with his last homer coming on May 10th. Verdugo has two in his last five games, and is working on an eight-game hitting streak. Combined with the slightly better price, he's the stronger option.

Pick: Alex Verdugo to hit a Home Run (+540, FanDuel)

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