Happy Saturday!
I've got four MLB home run picks today, including bangers for Cardinals vs Phillies and Twins vs Padres on August 22.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 7:05 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Grant Neiffer's Cardinals vs Phillies Home Run Pick
Last night, Joshua Baez broke his small cold streak since his major league debut, and he gets a great spot tonight.
Andrew Painter has been a bit of a gas can for righty power this season, allowing 1.65 HR/9.
The ballpark is an upgrade even with below-average weather.
I have the true odds on this home run prop around +500.
Pick: Joshua Baez Home Run
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Grant Neiffer's Rays vs Orioles Home Run Pick Today
Brandon Young has been a gas can for righty power, allowing a 1.7 HR/9 in his career and a 1.54 HR/9 this season.
Caminero is one of the best home run hitters in the league, and I have the true odds on this home run prop around +200.
Pick: Junior Caminero Home Run
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Grant Neiffer's Tigers vs Royals Home Run Pick Today
We haven't seen much of Drew Anderson in the majors since 2021, but he was a plus matchup for righty power, and this season is no different, allowing an above-average 1.5 HR/9.
The ballpark and weather aren't great for home runs today, but the odds more than make up for it.
I make the true odds on this home run prop around +450.
Pick: Bobby Witt Home Run
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Grant Neiffer's Twins vs Padres Home Run Pick Today
Dean Kremer has always been a plus matchup for lefty power, allowing an above-average 1.52 HR/9, but this season, he's been an absolute gas can for power, allowing a massive 1.99 HR/9 to lefties.
The weather is above average for lefty power, and Merrill has been much better since his slow start to the season, hitting 11 bombs since the beginning of July.
I have the true odds on this home run prop around +500.
Pick: Jackson Merrill Home Run
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