We have a shortened, 13-game slate on Monday, starting with White Sox vs. Orioles at Camden Yards (6:35 PM ET).
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Monday, June 29.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's White Sox vs Orioles Underdog Pick
By Sean Paul
Offensively, Chicago has enjoyed a power surge in June, ranking seventh in home runs and eighth in ISO. They lag in some other key areas, such as in strikeout rate (24%) and walk rate (8%). Their shaky plate approach is indicative of the White Sox's youth.
The pair of Sam Antonacci and Miguel Vargas has carried this Chicago lineup. Antonacci leads the squad with a 165 wRC+ in June, while Vargas has connected on five long balls.
The Orioles gave up a haul to pry Shane Baz away from the Rays, but it's been a bad trade for Baltimore thus far. Baz owns a 4.31 ERA with a 4.50 xERA and 3.84 FIP. I expected Baz to make a jump for Baltimore if he was able to stay healthy, but his K/9 dipped to 7.76, which should be one of his strengths.
Baz made real strides in the long-ball department, cutting his HR/9 in half from 1.41 to 0.86. However, teams are still hitting him hard, as he sits in the 22nd percentile in average exit velocity and 35th in hard hit rate.'
The Orioles' offense has disappeared in June, ranking 18th with a 104 wRC+. They have a 25% strikeout rate in that span, the third-worst in the league, but also walk at the 11th-best clip.
That said, I'm rolling with the White Sox here. I know Chicago is 27-13 at home compared to 15-25 on the road, but this matchup lines up nicely for them.
I give them the edge in the pitching matchup with Burke over Baz. The upside of both lineups favors the Orioles because of what Alonso, Henderson, and Samuel Basallo can accomplish. That said, I view the White Sox lineup as one that is more consistent and can take advantage of Baz's very hittable fastball.
Pick: White Sox ML (+114)
Read Sean Paul's full White Sox-Orioles preview here:
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Jon Anderson's BARTOLO Pick
By Jon Anderson
We have Sean Manaea vs. Trey Yesavage in Toronto today. My initial read on this one is that I like the pitchers. The Blue Jays have hit .219/.293/.358 against lefties this year — that's the second-lowest batting average and the third-lowest OPS.
Manaea has been stretched out again to be a starter for the Mets, throwing 80+ pitches in the last three. He has a 17.5% K-BB% since mid-May, even as he's bulked up the pitch counts. His fastball and sweeper have all worked very well with xwOBA allowed under .270 on both. The guy is a good pitcher, and he's in a good groove right now.
On the other side is Trey Yesavage, who has had some command issues this year. He's at a 12% BB% with a 37.9% Ball%, and he's coming off a five-walk start against Houston. It's another splitter guy. Sometimes you have the splitter feel, sometimes you don't. And if he loses it, there's not much else to fall back on.
We know he has huge upside. The SwStr% is very strong at 14.2%, and hitters have a ton of trouble squaring him up with a .269 xwOBA on the season. The Mets don't offer a ton of offensive resistance, even though they are getting healthy with both Soto and Lindor back in the lineup together.
The tiebreaker for me is the bullpens. It's always good to give those grades a look. The Mets rank #7 and the Blue Jays #5 on the day, according to our BARTOLO tool.
I think this could be a very quick and tidy game, and I like the under 8.5 we're getting.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-104)
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Chris Prince's Reds vs Brewers Strikeouts Prop
By Chris Prince
Solid strikeout upside spot here for Robert Gasser against this Reds team, and I was pleasantly surprised to be able to grab this at plus odds.
Gasser has been getting a longer leash of late, throwing 93, 92, and 97 pitches over his last 3 starts, and he has racked up 7 punchouts in 2 of those 3 starts.
Enter the Reds, who have the 8th-highest strikeout rate this season against LHP (24.8%).
There are 5 projected starters for the Reds who have a K rate above 23.5% against LHP this season, with 3 of those bats above 30%.
Pick: Robert Gasser Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+112)
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Sean Zerillo's Giants vs Diamondbacks Best Bet
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
By Sean Zerillo
Tonight's total has already moved from 8.5 to 9, but I still like the over at nine runs. I make the game closer to 9.4 runs before factoring in the home plate umpire, so there’s still enough value even after the market adjustment.
The biggest reason is that I see regression coming for both starting pitchers, albeit in different ways. Eduardo Rodríguez has been one of the biggest positive regression candidates in reverse this season. His ERA is still sitting around 2.30, but both his SIERA and expected ERA are closer to 4.80. That’s a gap of more than 2.5 runs, and I don’t expect him to continue outperforming his underlying metrics by that margin.
Tyler Mahle is almost the opposite case. His surface numbers look worse, with an ERA around 5.50, but his expected metrics are closer to 4.00. Even so, I’m not convinced better results are coming. His four-seam fastball and slider both get hit hard, and I think pitching half his games at Oracle Park has masked some of the home run damage that could show up in a much friendlier offensive environment like Chase Field.
Arizona’s offense is another reason I like this over. I rate the Diamondbacks as the best contact team in baseball, even ahead of Toronto. They consistently put the ball in play, pair that with elite team speed, and generate plenty of extra-base hits despite below-average swing decisions. The Giants bring more power to the table, while Arizona has a clear edge in athleticism, baserunning and overall offensive consistency.
I project both offenses as flawed from a swing-decision standpoint, but the pitching matchup outweighs those concerns. With Chase Field still playing as one of the better run-scoring environments in baseball, I make this total 9.4 and would play Over 9 at anything up to -105.
Pick: Over 9 (-112)
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