For Thursday, August 28, I'm on four MLB home run props: Andrew Vaughn, Mark Vientos, Juan Soto and Cody Bellinger.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, August 28
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 28
Andrew Vaughn (+540)
vs. Diamondbacks (SP: RHP Nabil Crismatt)
Andrew Vaughn is in a great spot, and these odds are way too high. We don't have a huge sample size of Nabil Crismatt in the majors as a starter, but based on his pitch mix, he grades out as a reverse-splits pitcher.
Most projection systems have him as a big plus matchup for righty power. I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Mark Vientos (+460)
at Marlins (SP: RHP Adam Mazur)
Mark Vientos has homered in five of his last 10, and the odds are too good tonight with how hot he's been. We don't have much of a sample size on Adam Mazur in the majors, but in the minors this season, he gave up a high 1.76 HR/9, and he owns a high 1.60 HR/9 in a 39-inning sample size in the majors.
The weather in New York should be good for hitting, with wind blowing out at 10 mph. WeatherEdge is giving this game a 19.4% increase to home runs. I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Juan Soto (+325)
at Marlins (SP: RHP Adam Mazur)
Mazur is the top pitcher to target tonight for homers, which means we are going heavy on the Mets. Switching sides of the plate now to Juan Soto, who has been red hot in August.
Mazur has faced 12 lefties in his big league career and has an 80 percent flyball rate with 4.5 homers allowed per nine innings. While the sample size is small, it's clear Soto is in a great spot tonight.
Cody Bellinger (+500)
at White Sox (SP: RHP Davis Martin)
Bellinger is just one of the Yankees' lefties to target tonight. Opposing pitcher Davis Martin has had some heavy splits when it comes to power this season, allowing a high 1.59 HR/9 to lefties.
The weather should be good for lefty power in Chicago, with winds blowing out to right field at 12 mph and a high dew point. I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
