For Thursday, July 31, I'm on two MLB home run props: Anthony Volpe and Adolis Garcia.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Thursday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Thursday, July 31
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:05 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 31
Anthony Volpe (+750)
vs Rays (SP: RHP Ryan Pepiot)
We might be a little bit late to the party here, considering Anthony Volpe has hit a home run in two straight games and four of his past seven, bringing him up to 16 on the season, after only hitting 33 total home runs over his first two years in the league (16.5 per season).
However, I still believe there’s value in backing him to stay hot in today’s matchup, especially at a price tag of +750 to hit a home run in a third straight game.
Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays this afternoon and is having another solid campaign, boasting a 3.42 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 22 starts. The Yankees’ players who have previously matched up against him own a combined batting average of .186 in those plate appearances (11-for-59).
However, Volpe has seen the ball the best against Pepiot, as he’s managed to go 3-for-6 with a walk and a double in seven career plate appearances against Pepiot.
Volpe isn’t going to catch anybody off-guard today, having hit a homer in back-to-back games against the same team he faces this afternoon. However, baseball is a weird, streaky game, and the matchup has been good for him in the past. So, I’ll back him to do it again this afternoon at +750.
Adolis Garcia (+475)
at Mariners (SP: RHP George Kirby)
After hitting only 10 home runs through the month of June, Rangers’ outfielder Adolis Garcia is finally finding some success with the long ball, as he’s now hit five home runs in the month of July, with the most recent coming in yesterday’s matchup against the Angels.
George Kirby, who’s having a subpar campaign by his own standards, with a record of 5-5 to go along with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP across 66 innings of work this season, will get the ball for the Mariners tonight.
Historically, Kirby has fared incredibly well in matchups against the Rangers, boasting a perfect 7-0 record to go along with a 1.15 ERA in nine career starts against Texas.
However, he tends to struggle with Garcia a bit in particular. Garcia is 6-for-20 (.300) with a home run, a double and a walk in 21 career plate appearances against Kirby.
While Garcia is certainly having a bit of a down year with a .227 batting average and a .667 OPS, he’s swinging the bat better now than he has all season, having recorded base hits in six of his past eight games, and he hit a home run in two of those contests.
I’ll back Garcia to close out the month with a bang tonight.
