MLB Home Run Props Today | Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, Juan Soto (Monday, June 5)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images, Brandon Sloter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images and Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: (left to right): Nick Castellanos of the Philadelphia Phillies, Nolan Arenado of the St. Louis Cardinals and Juan Soto of the San Diego Psdres.
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant.
One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money, and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot, and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a longshot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +10680 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies
Tigers vs. Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Joey Wentz (LHP)
If you want to look at the hottest hitter in baseball right now, Nick Castellanos may be that guy.
Since the calendar turned to June, Castellanos is 11-for-17 with a pair of home runs. He had an extra-base hit in three of his five games to end May and has seen his wOBA and hard-hit rate skyrocket in recent weeks.
Castellanos’ biggest issue is his chase rate. He often swings out of the zone, and it can backfire often. But if he’s able to stay a bit disciplined at the plate and not fall behind early, his numbers are extremely promising.
His numbers are up across the board this season compared to last. Barrel rate? Jumped nearly 4% to 10.5. Hard-hit rate? Over 8.5% to 43.6. His xBA, xSLG and average exit velocity have also seen steady increases.
Castellanos is also one of the Phillies' best hitters (first with a 132 wRC+) against left-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup on Monday against Joey Wentz, a southpaw who has severe issues limiting hard contact.
Wentz’s barrel rate has jumped to nearly 10% this season, and he ranks in the bottom 11% in xBA, xSLG and chase rate. Forty-five percent of balls put in play against Wentz qualify as "hard hit," and he has a low strikeout rate — relying on contact, specifically fly balls, for his outs.
All of that is a bad recipe for Castellanos, who is swinging an incredibly hot bat entering this series with Detroit. He’s also struck out just once in four June games — a feat in itself.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Martin Perez (LHP)
When the Cardinals face a struggling left-hander, you have to ask yourself: Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado?
The answer today is the latter.
Arenado was borderline unbettable in April, hitting just .231 with a pair of home runs (.306 slugging). But as the saying goes, April showers bring May flowers. Am I right?
Well, it definitely did for Arenado. His slugging jumped over 250 points (.560), and he hit seven home runs with a near-.300 average. His hard-hit rate has considerably risen, too.
While Arenado’s average is normally worse against left-handed pitching, his slugging is consistently higher. Nearly 55% of his hits against southpaws have gone for extra bases — 4-of-11 hits were also home runs — and his slugging is up at .619. Against right-handers, that number is .396.
This brings me to Martin Perez, the southpaw tasked with taking down this Cardinals lineup on Monday. After an outlier of a season in 2022, Perez has fallen down to earth. He ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xBA and whiff rate, and his xERA (5.30) remains a full run higher than actual.
Perez has struggled across the board. More barrels and harder-hit balls, a dip in velocity with his sinker. His ground ball rate has slashed by 10%, while line-drive and fly-ball rates have steadily risen.
He is a fade candidate for the foreseeable future. The Tigers tagged him for six runs over 4.2 innings — and it could’ve been more. I expect a similar struggle out of Perez and love Arenado to be one of the driving factors behind St. Louis’ success on Monday night.
I’m throwing .5u on Arenado to get over 1.5 total bases (-105) at DraftKings while his best to hit a HR number (.1u at +340) can be found at FanDuel.
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
Cubs vs. Padres, 9:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (RHP)
Ask yourself if you enjoy pain. If that answer is yes, take Juan Soto tonight.
The left-hander has one of the best eyes in baseball. That plate discipline has led to a 22.0% walk rate and a chase rate that ranks in the top 1% of all hitters. To beat him, a pitcher has to pound the strike zone. And if he does get beat, he swings one of the best bats.
It’s often a lose-lose for pitchers. Of all balls put into play, Soto ranks in the top 1% of all hitters with a hard-hit rate of 57%. That number has jumped 10 percentage points from last season and is a career-best.
We’ve also seen his barrel rate jump from last year, too. Soto is among the top of the leaderboards in all major hitting categories — max exit velocity, average exit velocity, xwOBA.
He is far and away the best Padres hitter against right-handed pitching (175 wRC+), and his ISO is a staggering .273 (also team-best).
He’ll square off against Kyle Hendricks on Monday night, a pitcher who seems to have very little left in the tank. Hendricks normally has good command, and in his prime years, was a ground ball pitcher that generated weak contact.
Over the last two seasons, we’ve seen his ground ball rates drop. This season has been a small sample size — just 9.1 innings — but he’s given up 12 hits and five walks in the process.
If Hendricks’ command begins to dissipate and he doesn’t generate as many chases, he becomes an easy pitcher to attack. Given his decrease in ground balls, that leaves the right-hander extremely prone to home runs.
I trust Hendricks’ command here. For his entire career, he’s never posted a season with a BB% above seven. But given his inability to generate swings and misses and an xBA/xSLG last season of .270 and .466, respectively, I expect San Diego to have a field day on Monday.
This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Padres' bats, and Soto is more than live to find the outfield seats. I’m backing him for .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+125) at DraftKings and .1u on him to hit a home run (+390) at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, June 5
- Nick Castellanos (+400)
- Nolan Arenado (+340)
- Juan Soto (+390)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,068.