The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on June 28, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Mets are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Mets Prediction
- Phillies vs Mets Pick: Phillies ML (-140 or Better)
My Phillies vs Mets best bet is on Philly. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Mets Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8 -110o / -110u | -144 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 8 -110o / -110u | +122 |
- Phillies vs Mets moneyline: Phillies -144, Mets +122
- Phillies vs Mets over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Phillies vs Mets spread: Phillies -1.5 (+116), Mets +1.5 (-144)
Phillies vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| Jesús Luzardo (LHP, PHI) | Stat | Tobias Myers (RHP, NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.39 / 3.24 | ERA / xERA | 6.00 / 3.85 |
| 3.13 / 3.01 | FIP / xFIP | 5.21 / 4.61 |
| 20.4% | K-BB% | 10.3% |
| 48.6% | GB% | 33.6% |
| .345 | BABIP | .276 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 103 | Location+ | 96 |
Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Now is the time to buy low on left-hander Jesús Luzardo, who takes the mound for the Phillies. He is coming off a poor outing and has had a volatile start to the 2026 season.
That said, his underlying metrics suggest he is pitching much better than his surface-level stats indicate. This season, Luzardo owns a 3.24 xERA and a .224 xBA.
He also ranks in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity, 85th percentile in strikeout rate, 70th percentile in barrel rate, and 91st percentile in hard-hit rate. Positive regression appears likely, especially against the New York Mets, a team he has dominated.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Over his past eight starts against New York, Luzardo is 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Meanwhile, the Mets have struggled at the plate this season.
Entering this matchup, New York ranks 25th in runs scored per game. The biggest concern with this lineup moving forward is its equal lack of both contact and power.
The Mets rank 25th in hits per game, 26th in batting average, 28th in slugging percentage, and 29th in OPS. Poor hitting has been one of the primary reasons for their last-place standing in the NL East.
Phillies vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
The Mets are a mess, as evidenced by David Stearns’ recent firing of manager Carlos Mendoza. However, Mendoza was an easy scapegoat for a poorly constructed roster that cannot hit or find consistent starting pitching.
The one silver lining for New York this season has been its bullpen. However, even that strength is neutralized in this matchup, as Philadelphia’s relief staff ranks ahead of the Mets’ in xERA, FIP, xFIP, and WAR.
Pick: Phillies ML (-140 or Better)
