MLB NRFI Picks: Thursday Model Predictions

We continue to spin our wheels, following our two units of profit on Tuesday with a 1-2 day on Wednesday. That still brings us to a respectable 52-36 on the season, with plenty of baseball left to go.

Starting today, I've incorporated 2024 pitcher stats into the model — though I'm still combining them with 2023 numbers for sample size reasons. That should help improve accuracy, particularly on players with a relatively small sample who've made big strides (forward or backwards) this year.

We have three more NRFI picks on Thursday's slate of baseball.

MLB NRFI Picks For Thursday, April 25

Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Mitch Keller

I don't typically pay this much juice on a NRFI, but it's hard to ignore this one today. The game total is a paltry seven, both starting pitchers have solid early game splits, and neither offense is especially intimidating at the top.

Betting on a first inning tie at -150 on Caesars is another option, since it includes the NRFI plus the slight chance of a tied first inning at a different number for a similar price.

Starting Pitchers: Zack Wheeler vs. Nick Martinez

I have this one projecting nearly as well as the game above, despite the higher eight-run total. That's due to the early game dominance of Zack Wheeler. He's yet to allow a run his first time through the order this season, and had a 2.27 ERA in that scenario in 2023.

There's a bit more risk on the other side on paper, but Martinez also hasn't allowed a run his first time through the order this year, albeit in a much smaller 4.2-inning sample.

Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Cole Ragans

The edge is slightly smaller here, but with the total dipping to 7.5 runs my model likes the value.

Neither pitcher is especially dominant early in games, and neither lineup is especially bad at the top, but given that they're all close to league average the low total is a strong signal.