MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Today’s Model Predictions

MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Today’s Model Predictions article feature image
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Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Hunter Greene (Reds)

The week started off well for us, going 2-1 (with the loss coming on a half-unit flier) for a solid 1.5 units of profit.

Let's keep it going on Tuesday, with a full day of baseball.

We have five MLB NRFI & YRFI picks and predictions for Tuesday, May 14.

MLB NRFI & YRFI Odds, Picks: Today's Model Predictions

Tuesday, May 14
4:40 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
NRFI -113 (Play to -120)

Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Chris Flexen (Game 1)

This game features the 23rd- and 30th-ranked offenses in MLB by wRC+, with only one above-average hitter by wRC+ (CJ Abrams) in the top three of either team's projected Game 1 lineups.

Both pitchers are solid as well, with Williams holding a 1.96 overall ERA and a 3.01 xERA, and Flexen in the low fours in both categories. Flexen's ERA dips to an excellent 1.23 his first time through the order though, so this one hits everything we're looking for.

Tuesday, May 14
6:35 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
NRFI -119 (Play to -130)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Bassitt vs. Kyle Bradish

We're going back to the well after cashing the NRFI yesterday in a game that needed 10 innings to produce just five runs.

Despite the big names at the top of its order, the story of the season for Toronto has been the lack of production from the start of its lineup.

Baltimore's Bradish has been excellent, with a 1.86 ERA on the season. While he's been worse on paper the first time through the order, his ERA rises to a still great 2.70 against the first nine hitters.

Bassitt has been bad overall with a 5.06 ERA, but his first-time-through-the-order mark is 1.06.

That discrepancy is what makes this bet work, as I'm expecting the favored Orioles to do most of their scoring once Bassitt begins to tire.

Tuesday, May 14
7:10p.m. ET
NESN
YRFI +100 (Play to -110)

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale vs. Nick Pivetta

We typically don't get even-money on YRFIs in games with a nine-run total, and I strongly suspect you'd come out way ahead if you were able to bet that line on every game with that total.

Civale has an ERA in the high fives on the season, while Pivetta has been much better overall — but his first-time-through-the-order ERA is 5.40 with a 4.72 xFIP.

Combined with two solid batting orders and what looks like excellent hitting weather in Boston, and this one's worth taking at the price.

Tuesday, May 14
7:20p.m. ET
MLB.TV
YRFI +100 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Jameson Taillon vs. Chris Sale

This game has an eight-run total, but I actually have it projecting slightly better for the YRFI than Tampa/Boston.

There's two reasons for that. The first is the Braves' lineup, which is absurdly stacked at the top. They're taking on Jameson Taillon, who has a 1.13 ERA this season, but his xFIP is 4.32.

The other factor is the Cubs' platoon splits. As a team, they rank 11th in overall wRC+. However, they rank third against lefties, with an excellent 133 mark.

That's a good sign against Chris Sale, who's ERA and leading indicators are all in the upper twos. He's been good, but this is a tough matchup for him.

Both pitchers' ERAs are also slightly higher the first time through the order, though that's a bit noisy with Taillon's overall numbers being so good (and so unsustainable).

Tuesday, May 14
9:40p.m. ET
ESPN+
NRFI +105 (Play to -125)

Starting Pitchers: Hunter Greene vs. Slade Cecconi

I'm hoping the plus-money line at Caesars is still available when this publishes because it's an awful line. The game has an 8.5-run total for one slightly above-average offense (Arizona) and one very bad offense in Cincinnati.

More importantly, one of the starting pitchers is Hunter Greene, a flamethrower who's much better early in games than later.

The other starter is Slade Cecconi, who, through 11.2 innings of first-time-through-the-order work, has allowed zero earned runs.

We couldn't ask for a better pitching combination, and I'd be willing to take a much worse line on this one than is currently offered.

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