I went 1-1 on Wednesday, hitting on the team-only pick at a juicy price but missing the full YRFI to keep me at .500 on the week.
I have just one pick on Thursday's short slate, and it's another team-only line.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI pick and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Pick — July 24, 2025
Orioles vs. Guardians NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton vs. Logan Allen
As is typically the case with single-team YRFIs, I initially noticed I was projecting fairly strong game YRFI odds on this bet.
However, the Orioles are facing southpaw Logan Allen, who comes into the game with an excellent 2.95 ERA his first time through the order.
To compound the issue, Baltimore is terrible against left-handed pitching, ranking 27th in the league with a 76 wRC+.
Thus, it follows logically that most of the value is on the Guardians' side, as they're reasonably solid at the top of their lineup against righties and are facing Charlie Morton, who has a 4.82 xFIP/4.60 ERA his first time through the order.
A heatwave in the Midwest should also help the cause here, as the forecast in Cleveland is 90 degrees with wind blowing out to right field.
With the Guardians' lineup nearly exclusively switch-hitting or left-handed, that wind helps them more than righties.
