We had another profitable day yesterday, going 1-1 with the loss on a half-unit bet to turn a half unit of profit.
Just two picks today, including one in the early game on Friday afternoon.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 13, 2025
Pirates vs. Cubs NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. Cade Horton
Paul Skenes is the best NRFI pitcher in baseball.
He still has a 0.00 ERA his first time through the order despite giving up an unearned run in the third inning of his last start via a throwing error that cost him his perfect first time through the order streak.
That still wasn't in the first inning, where he's yet to allow a run — earned or otherwise — this season. Equally important, the Pirates' offense ranks 29th in the majors by wRC+, so they aren't producing many YRFIs either.
All things considered, the NRFI is 11-3 in games started by Skenes, which translates to a 78% win rate or about -350 odds. While we'll occasionally take a painful loss at the juicy prices we get, it's still a profitable bet long term.
Rays vs Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Clay Holmes
Taj Bradley isn't the most confidence-inspiring starter at first glance — his ERA sits at 4.58 — but digging deeper there's a lot to like.
Bradley is due for some major regression with his xERA and xFIP considerably lower than his overall ERA. He's also been better early in games than his ERA would indicate, with a first time through the order xFIP of 3.68.
He gets a major park upgrade going to Citi Field tonight, a top five or so pitcher's park depending on which sample size you look at. Beyond that, the weather is excellent for defense, with a 13% reduction to scoring and a 16% reduction in homers, according to Weather Edge.
On the other side, Holmes has a 2.95 ERA that dips to 2.25 his first time through the order, and a much easier matchup against the Rays. With the Park/weather conditions today, I'm not projecting much of a risk on that side.
Be sure to click over to the innings tab on FanDuel, where the price on the NRFI is a few cents better.
