We lost both picks on Monday due to a different starting pitcher in one of the games than originally projected.
We'll try to turn that around today, with a much bigger slate on Tuesday.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — June 10, 2025
Marlins vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Mitch Keller
After missing all of 2024, Sandy Alcantara is back for the Marlins this season. It hasn't gone well to say the least, with the former ace posting a 7.89 ERA through 12 starts.
His underlying metrics are better in the 5.00 range but not exactly good. However, there have been some signs of life, with a solid six-inning, two-run start his last time out.
Plus, the Pirates are a solid get-right spot for opposing pitchers, as they rank 27th in wRC+ against righties. Miami isn't much better at 24th, and it has a tough pitching matchup against Mitch Keller.
Keller has a 2.17 ERA his first time through the order and solid overall marks. With PNC Park favoring pitchers and the fact that there's somewhat positive pitching weather, that's enough to take the low-juice -110 NRFI at DraftKings.
Mariners vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Brandon Pfaadt
Just like the last game, this projection is more about the hitters than the pitchers.
The worst hitter in the top five of either lineup tonight by 2025 wRC+ is Julio Rodriguez with a 112 mark. The league average is 100, and Rodriguez has been somewhat unlucky this season with his BABIP and HR/FB ratio both being career-low marks by a wide margin.
This game being in Arizona instead of Seattle is a new adjustment of more than 20% in favor of offense, which partially explains the nine-run total.
While Mariners starter Bryan Woo has a strong 3.07 ERA on the season, he's about half-a-run worse on the road.
Brandon Pfaadt hasn't been great anywhere. with a 5.51 overall ERA and 6.95 xERA. His first-time-through-the-order ERA is north of 7.00, and he has a tall order against the top of the Mariners' lineup.
I wouldn't go much past the price at BetMGM, but the -120s at FanDuel and DraftKings are playable.
