MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Thursday, Sept. 17)

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Betting Odds

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The New YorkMets have a knack of doing just enough to keep things interesting without actually accomplishing anything of any significance. While they are just three games outside of the final Wild Card spot in the National League, they need to hurdle about three teams ahead of them in order to claim a postseason berth.

Tonight, they'll face a stiff challenge with Aaron Nola getting the start for the Philadelphia Phillies. Let’s dive in to see if the Mets deserve a fade tonight.

Mets

After starting the season in the bullpen, Seth Lugo will make his fifth start of the season. Overall, he’s done well this season — 2-3 with a 2.63 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

As a starter, he holds a 2.66 FIP and despite the limited innings, his 3.43 GB/FB ratio is still impressive. Hitters are only hitting .234 against him yet when they make contact, that number jumps to .342. That’s not at all a surprise to me because it wouldn’t be the Mets if they didn’t have a pitcher who had this kind of bad luck after contact.

Lugo has made 18 appearances against the Phillies and he’s 1-1 with a 3.40 ERA. What concerns me for this game as a Mets fan are his head to head numbers with this current Phillies lineup.

In 78 at-bats, Phillies batters are hitting .295 against Lugo with a .360 OBP. What Philadelphia hasn’t been able to do is hit for power against Lugo as their slugging percentage is only .333.

The Mets have been trying to stretch Lugo out and he’s been able to give them five innings in each of his past two starts. One of those starts was against the Phillies as he bested rookie, Spencer Howard in a 5-1 win.

Phillies

There’s no question that Nola is the Phillies' ace. He’s 5-3 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. While his 3.10 FIP is higher than his ERA, he has made the majority of his starts at Citizens Bank Park, which is more of a hitter’s park than it is for pitchers.

Against the Mets in his career, Nola is 8-2 with a 3.0 ERA. Two starts ago he took the loss against the Mets in a 14-1 blowout. While it wasn’t one of his best performances, three of six runs he gave up were earned. The Mets actually scored seven runs in the eighth inning, which makes the scoreline look even worse.

The important thing to focus on in this matchup are his head-to-head numbers with the Mets hitters. In 210 at-bats they’re only hitting .205 with a .285 OBP and .329 SLG.

Tonight’s ballgame sets up a classic revenge spot for he and the Phillies and that's an important nugget that should not go overlooked.

Mets vs. Phillies Betting Pick

My model actually makes the Phillies a slight favorite in this matchup at -111 with the Mets an +100 dog. Let's not forget that these games down the stretch also mean something to the Phillies as they're just barely holding on to the seventh playoff spot in the National League. I'll trust Nola's experience in this spot against the Mets.

I've said recently that the Mets remind me of pocket queens at the poker table. They look good when you first look down at your hand, but be careful pushing all your chips to the middle with this team.

I'm willing to risk a half-unit of my bankroll that the Phillies right the ship tonight with their ace on the mound. I would play this up to -130.

The Bet: Phillies ML -129 (0.5 unit) 

[Bet the Phillies at -108 Odds with a 20% profit boost at Parx]