MLB Odds, Best Bets: Our Top 3 Plays for Monday, Featuring Orioles vs. Mariners (June 27)
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Cedric Mullins.
- Monday's MLB slate isn't a big one, but there's still plenty of betting value on the board.
- Our staff breaks down picks for three games — Athletics vs. Yankees, Marlins vs. Cardinals and Orioles vs. Mariners — for Monday's slate.
- Check out all three of our best MLB bets below.
The college baseball season is over. The NHL season is over. The NBA season is over. The MLB season, however, isn’t even halfway through, and it takes center stage on Monday.
Check out all three best bets below, and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Athletics vs. Yankees
Jules Posner: This feels like a trap game for the Yankees. The Athletics are bad, but the risk/reward in today’s matchup is too good to pass up.
Paul Blackburn is on the hill for the A’s, and he’s posted a 1.00 ERA and 2.60 FIP without allowing a no home run on the road this season. He’s coming off his worst start of the season, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that was more of an anomaly than a trend.
Additionally, the Yankees haven’t been the Yankees at home against right-handed pitchers of late. Over the past three weeks against RHP at home, they’ve posted an 89 team wRC+, which is 20th in MLB.
We saw their struggles against Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy, so perhaps Blackburn can approach that? Yes, that is a question.
The A’s also struggle on offense, but the only situation they seem to hit well in is against left-handers on the road. Over the past month, the A’s have the 12th-best wRC+ against LHP on the road. Hopefully, they can put up enough offense to steal Game 1 from the Yankees.
The Athletics moneyline is as high as +240 at most books, and BetMGM is giving them -120 for +2.5 runs. The values here are too tempting. The risk/reward is so high that this is a dog that has to be taken.
Marlins vs. Cardinals
Brad Cunningham: Pablo Lopez should not be an underdog to Adam Wainwright tonight.
First off, Lopez’s 3.55 xERA is almost a full run lower than Wainwright’s, which sits at 4.20.
That’s significant considering the offensive matchup is pretty even. In fact, the Marlins’ lineup has been far better versus right-handed pitching than the Cardinals’ this season (MIA .323 wOBA/111 wRC+/.165 ISO vs. STL .315 wOBA/105 wRC+/.147 ISO).
Now, in terms of matchups, this is a fantastic one for the Marlins’ lineup because not only do they hit right-handed pitching well, but they also own a +22.3 run value against right-handed curveballs, sinkers and cutters. Those pitches just happen to be Wainwright’s three main pitches that he goes to 81.3% of the time, per Baseball Savant.
Lopez doesn’t have the best of matchups tonight considering he mainly utilizes a four-seam/changeup combination, which are the two pitches that the Cardinals have been crushing this season (+11.4 run value against righties).
But if Lopez can lean on the changeup, which he allows just a .174 xBA against, he should find some success. Of the Cardinals’ +11.4 run value, only 3.2 of it is coming from changeups.
I have Lopez and the Marlins projected as -106 favorites for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +106 or better.
Orioles vs. Mariners
Doug Ziefel: Don’t look now, but this Orioles team has started to heat up.
The perennial bottom feeders of the AL East have won seven of their last 10 games and are in an excellent spot to keep rolling tonight against a rookie starter.
The Orioles have some hot bats in their lineup, as Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays and Anthony Santander have all been making consistent solid contact of late.
Tonight, they’ll get to face rookie right-hander George Kirby. Kirby’s peripheral stats may look good as he enters with a 3.12 ERA and 47 punchouts across 49 innings, but his underlying metrics tell a much different story.
Kirby is amongst the bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Those rankings make his expected ERA over a half-run higher than it is.
His regression starts tonight when the Orioles get on the board early and often.