MLB Odds & Picks: Monday’s Best Bets, Including Reds vs. Diamondbacks
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Votto.
- Monday's MLB slate isn't a huge one, but there's still plenty of betting value across the board.
- Our staff has chosen three games to get down on today: Pirates vs. Cardinals, Reds vs. Diamondbacks and Royals vs. Giants.
- Check out all three picks and breakdowns below.
There’s only one thing that can help cure a case of the Mondays: MLB betting.
While Monday’s slate isn’t a huge one — it features only 10 games — there’s still plenty of betting value across the board. Our writers have found value on three, including Pirates vs. Cardinals, Reds vs. Diamondbacks and Royals vs. Giants.
Check out all three of our top MLB bets for Monday below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more best bets.
MLB Odds & Picks
Pirates vs. Cardinals
PRO Report: Monday’s MLB slate isn’t a huge one — there are just 10 games on today’s schedule.
In addition, there’s also that little Game 5 of the NBA Finals tipping at 9 p.m. ET, so I’m not breaking any news when I saw that most fans and casual sports bettors will be singularly-focused on Celtics vs. Warriors.
But — and there’s always a but — oddsmakers are still posting MLB odds, which means there are still plenty of opportunities to find betting value on Monday night.
And according to Action Network’s MLB PRO Projections, savvy bettors should take a very close look at Pirates vs. Cardinals, which is showing as tonight’s biggest betting model edge.
On paper, Pirates vs. Cardinals projects as a blowout. However, that’s exactly why betting lines are created to handicap the difference between two uneven teams.
According to live MLB odds, Pittsburgh is a +160 underdog against St. Louis on Monday night, but our betting model doesn’t project that big of a gap between these two teams.
Our PRO Projections make the Pirates +138 for tonight’s game, which, when compared with the consensus moneyline of +160, results in a 3.5% edge for Pittsburgh bettors.
Interestingly, a handful of shops, like BetMGM, have already dipped to +155 as of the time of writing, so be sure to visit our MLB Live Odds Page to pinpoint one of the many sportsbooks, like FanDuel, still hanging this number at +160.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: Over his last seven games, Joey Votto has posted a .333 BA, .250 ISO and four extra-base hits. Additionally, he’s eclipsed 1.5 total bases in four of those seven games.
However, over the past three weeks on the road against RHP, he’s posted just a .278 BA but still has a .278 ISO. Additionally, three of his five hits over that span have gone for extra bases.
On the other side, Merrill Kelly has not been as sharp against left-handed hitters at home as he’s been over the course of the season. In his last two starts, Kelly has allowed a .308 BA, .538 slugging and a 37.5% line-drive percentage.
In the larger context of the season, Kelly has done well to subdue left-handed bats, but this recent lull may be a good opportunity for Votto to cash in on extra bases.
Kelly isn’t a high strikeout pitcher and Votto is a high contact hitter, so things might be aligning for Votto, who also has hit over .300 lifetime at Chase Field.
Finally, the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is allowing a .289 batting average against over the past three weeks, so Votto may end up getting four or five shots at the 1.5 total base mark. Also, all three of the Diamondbacks’ lefties threw in Sunday’s game, so Votto may be set up to face all righties.
Votto’s total base odds sit at +100, and if they stay in plus money, could be a good value. But I’d still take it to the -110 threshold.
Royals vs. Giants
Brad Cunningham: What is interesting about Brady Singer is that he predominately utilizes a sinker as his go-to pitch and then backs it up with a slider and changeup.
If he can be effective with his slider, he may have some success tonight because San Francisco has a -3.9 run value against that pitch this year. However, against fastballs and sinkers, he’s in trouble because the Giants have already racked up over a +50 combined run value against those two pitches, per Baseball Savant.
Alex Wood has been a mirror image of his 2021 season, posting an xERA and xFIP below 4.00.
In terms of matchups, it’s a pretty good one for Wood. He faces a Royals lineup that ranks 22nd in terms of wOBA against left-handed pitching and has a combined -6.4 run value against Wood’s top three pitches of sinker, slider and changeup.
Not to mention, these teams are playing in one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks on a cool 60-degree night in San Francisco.
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