MLB Odds, Best Bets: Wednesday Night Picks, Including Marlins vs Braves & Padres vs Cubs
Matt Dirksen/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago Cubs infielder Nico Hoerner.
- After a solid slate of MLB day games, our staff has turned its attention to Wednesday's evening matchups.
- Our writers came through with three MLB best bets for Wednesday night: Mariners vs. Phillies, Marlins vs. Braves and Padres vs. Cubs.
- Check out all three of our best bets for Wednesday night's MLB games below.
After seven stellar day games in MLB, we turn our attention to Wednesday evening's slate.
Our staff came through with three best bets for tonight's matchups, including picks for Mariners vs. Phillies, Marlins vs. Braves and Padres vs. Cubs. So, let's keep our momentum rolling as the sun starts to set.
Read on for all three of our top picks for Wednesday night below — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more MLB betting coverage.
Wednesday Night's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from Wednesday evening's slate of games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mariners vs. Phillies
Wednesday, April 26 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Phillies +105  |
By Kenny Ducey
The Phillies may have been stopped dead in their tracks on Tuesday, but they will continue their hot streak with a win over the Mariners on Wednesday.
Seattle continues to look very average at the plate with a 98 wRC+ over the past week to go along with a high 26.4% strikeout rate and a low 7.5% walk rate. It is still just 18th in hard-hit balls per swing and 17th in ISO for the season.
This is great if you’re Taijuan Walker, who’s pitched to contact over the course of his career and had his issues with walks. His season is off to a solid start despite a 13.5% walk rate, thanks in large part to a low .326 xwOBA on contact and a very high 60% ground-ball rate.
Judging by the latter, this could wind up being one of the best seasons of his career should that trend continue.
On the other side of this one, I’m still not totally sold on Logan Gilbert. There were plenty of reasons to be skeptical coming off of two very uninspiring years given his underlying numbers. While his strikeouts are up, he’s still given up three homers in four starts as those issues seem to persist.
The Phillies have actually cut back on the strikeouts over the last week, getting fanned in 23% of plate appearances, and they’re starting to look very dangerous with 11 homers and a .222 ISO during that time.
The one constant in Gilbert’s career to this point is that he will allow homers and hard-hit balls, so if Philly can stay disciplined here, I think it will take this one behind another strong showing from Walker.
Pick: Phillies +105 |
Marlins vs. Braves
Wednesday, April 26 7:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 8  |
It was only a matter of time before Sandy Alcantara stumbled after stellar back-to-back seasons of 200+ innings pitched. The reigning NL Cy Young winner has stumbled to begin the season, and he’s looked plenty mortal.
Alcantara’s line drive rate is up nearly 10% from last season, and it’s led to a .282 xBA and .432 xSLG. His strikeout numbers are down and his changeup — the best pitch from last season with a .169 xBA — has been tattooed to the tune of a .329 xBA.
While Alcantara shouldn’t have a 43.7 LOB% for long, there are some major concerns from the right-hander, especially given a tough matchup tonight against the Braves' bats. Atlanta ranks fourth in wRC+ to begin the season and sits third in ISO and wOBA.
Alcantara has made it past the sixth just once this season — albeit, a complete game shutout — but other than that has struggled. Once he’s out, Atlanta gets an appetizing matchup with a Marlins bullpen that ranks 28th in xFIP and dead last in HR/9.
What’s even more surprising is they may be running on a bit of luck and could see negative regression, too. They’re second in BABIP (.238) despite their blatant struggles. The Marlins also have a below-average defense.
Opposite Alcantara is Bryce Elder, who has significantly out-pitched expectations. The right-hander has a 4.00 xERA yet has given up just three runs across 23.2 innings. He’s in the bottom 6% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate (53.1) and has a .254 xBA/.378 xSLG.
Negative regression is looming for the 23-year-old who has an 86.7 LOB% and a low chase rate. He’s given up a line drive on a quarter of balls in play this year, too.
The Marlins are by no means a strong offense, but they are more than apt to scratch a few runs here against Elder. He’s inevitably going to struggle as he continues to overperform despite such a high hard-hit rate and xBA.
Padres vs. Cubs
Wednesday, April 26 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cubs F5 -105  |
By Jim Turvey
The Chicago Cubs have been one of the more pleasant surprises of the early season, while the San Diego Padres have been off to a slow start.
However, that's not the only reason to look at the Cubbies today. The main reason is the pitching matchup.
Drew Smyly toes the rubber for the Cubs, and he has been outstanding this season. That may seem like a wild sentence to be saying in the year of our Lord 2023, but here we are — Smyly has a 1.96 xERA through his first four starts of the season.
His stuff is never going to overwhelm, but his strikeout rate is the highest it's been in years, and he has cut significantly into his walks and home runs allowed — the latter thanks in large part to his near-league-leading ability to induce soft contact.
Opposing Smyly will be Michael Wacha, a pitcher I was looking to fade even before the season started. The results have proven that stance prescient so far.
Wacha has a 7.08 ERA and 6.91 xERA — both among the worst in baseball. The "X" stats in general abhor Wacha, as he gives up some of the hardest contact in the league. When adding that to a mediocre K-BB%, it's a recipe for disaster.
Finally, there's the handedness split for each offense. The Cubs are sporting a 118 wRC+ against righties this season, while the Padres sit at just 90 wRC+ against southpaws like Smyly.
Add it all together, and this is one of my favorite best bets in a little while. I'd play Cubs first five to -130.
Pick: Cubs F5 -105 |
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