Wednesday MLB Odds & Picks: 4 Best Bets Including Mets vs. Cubs, Diamondbacks vs. Reds & Blue Jays vs. Red Sox (April 21)
Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto.
- Weather permitting, 28 teams are slated to play on a busy day for MLB.
- While many games had an early-afternoon first pitch, there's still plenty of action to round out the day.
- See which games our staff is focusing on, below.
It's a full day once against on the MLB schedule, although rain is threatening a handful of games. Nonetheless, with every team save the Dodgers and Mariners are supposed to play, that means there's plenty of opportunities to find value.
Our staff has found four bets to recommend from Wednesday's slate of MLB games. There's one moneyline, two totals, and one team total to choose from. Below, you will find our staff's best bets for Wednesday.
MLB Odds & Picks
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Washington Nationals
Brad Cunningham: Even though Carlos Martinez isn't what he once was, he has a lot of help behind him in the field and in the bullpen. The Cardinals are the best defensive team in baseball and before the season were projected to have an above-average bullpen. For the Nationals lineup, outside of Trea Turner and Juan Soto, there isn't much fire power, as last season nobody besides those two had a wOBA over .340.
Max Scherzer is still dealing at the ripe age of 34. He has a 3.49 xFIP through his first three starts of 2021 and has struck out 24 batters in the process. He'll have a fantastic matchup against the Cardinals, who really struggled versus right-handed pitching in 2020, putting up a .305 wOBA and 92 wRC+, which were both in the bottom-10 of MLB. Additionally, the Cardinals had negative weighted runs against every pitch in Max Scherzer's arsenal, so he should be able to mow them down tonight.
I only have 6.93 runs projected for this game, so I think there is some value on Under 8 runs at -106 odds.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Jeff Hicks: Finishing last night's game may be a deterrent for some to bet the over on this game, but I have been bullish on the Reds' offense since the spring.
Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has allowed 23 hits and four home runs in 16 innings pitched. He does not strike out many batters, walks too many hitters, and has an expected ERA higher than his actual ERA, according to FanGraphs.
The Reds average 6.33 runs per game, while the D'backs' bullpen has allowed 26 extra-base hits and 28 walks in 2021. Cincinnati should score plenty of runs in this one, off both Kelly and Arizona's bullpen. Back Cincinnati's team total here at plus money and don't be scared away by the fact that they're completing last night's game before starting this one.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Tanner McGrath: The Blue Jays are a young, exciting team with a lot of firepower. Players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette have reignited hope for the Toronto fanbase and elicited high expectations for the future.
However, we’ve tracked sharp money coming in on the Red Sox, as the Boston ML is getting 86% of the money despite getting just 43% of the bets at the time of this writing.
The Blue Jays are just overvalued right now, specifically on the offensive side. Outside of Guerrero and Bichette, Randal Grichuk is the only guy with an OPS+ above 72. Overall, the Blue Jays are a bottom-10 team in OBP, SLG and wOBA.
Moreover, the advanced stats suggest Toronto’s offensive numbers might even be inflated. Despite leading the league in average exit velocity, the Blue Jays are currently a bottom-three team in xBA, xSLG and xwOBA.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense has looked unstoppable, the bullpen has pitched lights out and today’s starter, Garrett Richards, has bounced back after a rough start. Richards has allowed just two runs and seven hits over his last 10 innings of work.
And after facing a dangerous Minnesota lineup, Richards gets to face a Toronto team that ranks 24th against RHPs in wRC+ and has posted a measly .585 OPS against RHPs on the road. Plus, Richards mainly throws a fastball/slider mix, and Toronto boasts negative weighted runs created against both pitches this season.
Since Toronto has just four starting pitchers in the rotation and Ross Stripling is currently on the IL, the Blue Jays are starting right-handed reliever Trent Thornton. While he’s been excellent in his appearances this season, we shouldn’t see him for more than a few innings.
So, I’m fading an overvalued Toronto lineup on a bullpen day against a red-hot Red Sox lineup with a starter who can take advantage of Toronto’s weaknesses. I played the Boston ML at -121 on PointsBet and would bet it to -130.
New York Mets vs. Chicago Cubs
Kenny Ducey: It’s true, I expected this Mets offense to break out against a pitcher who was due for some regression on Tuesday night, and it didn’t happen. So, why am I expecting that to happen again on Wednesday?
Well, if Jake Arrieta is a ticking time bomb, then Zach Davies is simply a bomb. The right-hander has been a regression candidate for at least five years now, and has had his fair share of rocky starts. This season, he’s got a 5.60 xERA and has been shelled at least once against the lowly Pirates.
He ranks in the bottom-14% of the league in walk rate, and the bottom-7% in strikeout rate. A pitch-to-contact righty could be just what the doctor ordered after Arrieta’s swing-and-miss arsenal gave them fits in the opening game of the series. It doesn’t hurt that they’re eighth in walk rate and facing a pitcher with control issues, either.
On the other hand, David Peterson is a bad left-handed pitcher, and the one thing we can say about the Cubs is that they’ve been good against lefties, ranking 10th in baseball with a 114 wRC+ against them. Peterson lacks velocity, and he’s given up an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph this season. I’m bearish on the Cubs’ bats, but even I have to admit this total is far too low.
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