MLB Odds, Expert Picks Today: Best Bets for Mariners-Angels, More (Sunday, June 11)
Via Duane Burleson/Getty Images. Pictured: Logan Gilbert #36 of the Seattle Mariners is greeted by teammates after being pulled from a game against the Detroit Tigers during the sixth inning at Comerica Park on May 14, 2023 in Detroit, Michigan.
- There's a full 15-game MLB slate today, and our betting experts have identified value throughout the day.
- The best bets get started early with the first game of the day -- Diamondbacks vs. Tigers -- and continue throughout the afternoon.
- Continue reading to see our MLB best bets for Sunday, June 11.
All 30 MLB teams are in action as Sunday, June 11 features a loaded slate. The day gets started early at 11:35 a.m. ET and continues through Sunday Night Baseball.
Action Network's team of MLB betting experts has looked over Sunday's matchups and identified some best bets. So, without further ado, here are the MLB best bets for Sunday, June 11.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers
By Tony Sartori
Right-hander Zac Gallen takes the mound for the Arizona Diamondbacks and should be a great candidate to back in this contest. Through 13 starts this season, Gallen is 7-2 with a 2.75 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
A strikeout specialist, the potential Cy Young candidate ranks in the 63rd percentile or higher in K%, Whiff% and Chase Rate. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, Gallen routinely pumps his fastball to set up a devastating curveball, a pitch with a 44.1 Whiff% and 27.9 PutAway% this season.
The punchout has always been one of, if not, Gallen's greatest strengths. He has finished each of his four MLB seasons with a strikeout rate over 26%. He's also recorded at least seven strikeouts in seven of his 13 starts this year.
Meanwhile, Detroit ranks in the bottom five of the league in runs per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs. The Tigers also struggle with the strikeout, ranking 25th in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday's projected starting lineup, six of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 22% this year.
Those strikeout woes are likely to continue against Gallen. While it is a very small sample size, Detroit's roster possesses a fade-worthy 25% strikeout rate through 12 career plate appearances against the right-hander.
Opposing starting pitchers have collected at least seven strikeouts in four of the Tigers' past six games, and Gallen should add to that total. Back Gallen to record over 6.5 strikeouts and play that to -110.
Pick: Zac Gallen Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers
By Alex Hinton
Arizona enters Sunday riding a four-game winning streak. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Tigers 17-6 in the first two games in this series. Today, they will send their ace, Zac Gallen, to the mound to complete the sweep.
Gallen hasn't been nearly as dominant on the road as he has a 5.40 ERA in six road starts. However, he'll face a struggling Tigers offense today. The Tigers have lost eight straight games and were shut out Saturday for the third time since rising star Riley Greene was placed on the Injured List. Additionally, with Joey Wentz opposing him, Gallen may not have to be lights out.
Wentz has been dreadful this season with a 7.49 ERA, a 6.42 xERA and a 1.76 WHIP. He has allowed at least six hits in six of his past seven starts and is allowing a 46.3% Hard Hit Percentage, which ranks in the 14th percentile.
Wentz has a 6.75 ERA in the first inning and a 9.41 ERA in day games. For a riskier play, you can take the Diamondbacks to win the first inning at +240 on FanDuel. However, with their balanced offensive attack, led by Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll, I like the Diamondbacks to win the game by two runs, if not more.
Mets vs. Pirates
Despite a shockingly poor start last time out against Oakland, and a total of 15 earned runs over his past 17 1/3 innings, I'm still very high on Mitch Keller this season, and like him as a short favorite against the Mets on Sunday afternoon.
New York finally got off the schneid on Saturday behind Kodai Senga, but there's little reason to have any faith in Carlos Carrasco at this point in his career.
Carrasco's strikeout rate is down an absurd 9% from last year, and more than 10% from his career average. Nothing about his miserable 5.94 ERA has been unlucky. In fact, his FIP is all the way up at 6.09, and his .264 BABIP allowed is actually significantly DOWN from his career rate.
There's little reason to sell Keller after his last start. Even in the previous two — where he allowed 10 runs combined to the Giants and Mariners — he struck out a combined 16 and walked just three. The stuff is as good as advertised, he's just run into a bit of bad luck and was uncharacteristically wild against Oakland.
I am fully on board for a Keller bounce back start on Sunday. I'd back his F5 line at -128 (up to -140), but I have enough faith in Pittsburgh's bullpen that my best bet is the Pirates full game moneyline at -116, and I'd bet that to -130.
Marlins vs. White Sox
By D.J. James
Despite the Chicago White Sox not having much in the way of offense, they've still been one of the relatively hot teams in the weak American League Central over the past month. On Sunday, they take on lefty Braxton Garrett and the Miami Marlins. Lucas Giolito throws for the White Sox, but the angle here isn't the moneyline.
The White Sox have built themselves a trend of really only hitting against left-handed pitching and will get to play to that strength against Garrett.
Garrett may only walk 4.7% of hitters, but the White Sox don't walk anyways. Instead, he allows an Average Exit Velocity of 91.1 mph and a 9.8% Barrel Rate. His 4.47 ERA is likely going to get worse based on his 5.12 xERA. The cherry on top is a 46.6% Hard Hit Rate.
Now, Chicago hasn't received much production from Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada, but the White Sox still own a 114 wRC+ and a .772 OPS off of lefties in the past month. Also in that span, Chicago has six hitters with an xwOBA over .340.
Take the White Sox team total over in this game and play it to 5 (-125).
Mariners vs. Angels
There's no reason why Logan Gilbert should be an underdog against Griffin Canning.
Gilbert has posted a solid 3.80 ERA, but his underlying numbers have been elite this season. His xERA is almost a full run lower (2.98) and he has one of the lowest walk rates in the league (4.6%).
Gilbert is really only struggling with one pitch, his curveball. Otherwise his fastball and slider have been really effective, as both are allowing an xwOBA under .300 and producing a whiff rate over 20%. His Stuff+ rating is 103, which is top 30 among qualified starting pitchers.
Canning has been an average MLB pitcher this season. His xERA is 4.25 and his Stuff+ is 95, but his Pitching+ is 103 because his control and location have been outstanding. However, having below-average stuff along and allowing a ton of hard contact (Canning is in the bottom 20% of starting pitchers in average exit velocity allowed and hard-hit % allowed), makes Canning's ceiling a lot lower than Gilbert's.
I have Gilbert and the Mariners projected at -128 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +106.