MLB Best Bets: 3 Top Picks From Saturday Evening’s Slate, Including Diamondbacks vs. Padres (July 16)
Photo by Zac BonDurant/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Gilbert
- The Red Sox-Yankees series will obviously take center stage on Saturday evening, but we have three best bets across three different games.
- The other two are Brewers-Giants and Diamondbacks-Padres.
- Read below to get analysis behind each selection.
We have five evening games in MLB on Saturday, and that means one thing: more opportunities to earn some cash.
Baseball's best rivalry will take center stage (obviously), but we have two NL heavyweights in action, as the Mets take on the Cubs and the Dodgers square off against the Angels.
But for the purposes of this article, we're focusing on three games and three best bets: Red Sox vs. Yankees, Brewers vs. Giants and Diamondbacks vs. Padres.
MLB Odds & Picks
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Kenny Ducey: I’m not a fan of either of these pitchers right now, and while the offenses have both had their issues, I’m certain that a good number of runs will be scored here.
Nick Pivetta just gave up two homers at Fenway Park against the Yankees, who are also a pretty bad matchup for the righty — given they make Pivetta revert back into the high-walk pitcher he’s been for years.
Jameson Taillon, too, gave up three homers to Boston, as he failed to miss any bats and was the victim of his high-expected batting average.
Despite the fact that both offenses have been middling, I think we should see another slugfest here — given how poor both pitchers are.
While it’s hard to fade the Yankees in a slugfest, it’s even harder to pass up a relatively low total.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants
Nicholas Martin: San Francisco has been significantly more effective against left-handed pitching this season, and its lineup is likely to generate some early runs off of Eric Lauer, who hasn't been as strong as his surface level numbers suggest.
It's been widely covered that Alex Cobb has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball. Be it untimely defensive errors extending innings, or soft contact getting down at all the most crucial times, things just haven't gone Cobb's way this season.
At some point, better results are bound to follow for Cobb, who has been far sharper than his higher than average ERA suggests.
In turn, San Francisco quietly has a notable starting pitching advantage here, and taking that into account — alongside its splits versus left-handed pitching — I believe there's value backing San Francisco to win the first 5 innings at -105 (-0.5 line).
I would play that down to a number of -115.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
D.J. James: Tyler Gilbert and the Arizona Diamondbacks will match up with another lefty in Sean Manaea and the San Diego Padres.
Gilbert has shockingly done well in his last two starts (0.96 ERA in 9 2/3 innings). On the season, however, batters are averaging an Exit Velocity of 89.5 mph.
This might be because he rarely strikes hitters out (15.7%).
That said, Manaea hasn't been particularly sharp of late. His Average Exit Velocity is higher than Gilbert’s at 89.9 mph. He strikes out hitters at an above average clip, but he owns a 5.59 ERA over two starts in July.
On top of that, the Padres only own a team wRC+ of 94 off of southpaws in the last month. Basically, the longer Gilbert stays in the game, the longer the Padres will be out of luck.
In contrast, Arizona’s wRC+ is 109 in the last month off of left-handers. This should be more than enough to make this a short outing for Manaea. The Diamondbacks do only have five batters above a .350 xwOBA mark in the last month, but this just means they will be the ones who have to do the damage.
Take Arizona from +163, and it has value until +135.
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