MLB Odds & Picks: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Wednesday, Aug. 12)

Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Odds

Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Diamondbacks and Rockies will play the rubber match in their series on Wednesday afternoon in Coors Field.

Tuesday, the Rockies used a six-run rally in the eighth inning to hold off the Diamondbacks, who rallied for five runs of their own in the ninth before falling short in a 9-8 loss.

Both teams have combined for 35 runs in just two games and it’s no surprise that we’ve already seen a move on the total from 11.5 to 12. Wednesday’s ballgame should be no different with runners crossing home plate given each team’s familiarity with the opposing pitcher on the mound.

Early Line Move

When I started looking at this game two things jumped out to me:

• Why did the Diamondbacks flip from the underdog to the favorite (opened around -102 and now sit at -110 at BetMGM)?
• Did one offensive outburst really change the market’s perception that much of a team that remains last in run scoring (75) and run differential (-26) in the NL West?

Naturally, the answer to both questions has to do with the starting pitchers on the mound Wednesday afternoon.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher

Arizona’s starter, Luke Weaver, has had his share of struggles this season (0-3 12.19 ERA). I’d love to tell you that Weaver has shown improvement in his recent starts, but the truth is that his ground ball to fly ball ratio of .39 is alarming. This is even more evident when you compare it to last season when he posted a 1.08 ratio and a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts.

A good number of those fly balls have turned into home runs as Weaver has surrendered five deep balls in only 10.1 innings. That amounts to 4.35 home runs every nine innings of work. That’s not exactly what you’re looking for when the venue of your next start is at Coors Field.

While Weaver has struggled against Colorado in a limited sample size, his numbers are far better than the active totals of the opposing pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, against the Diamondbacks.

Rockies Starting Pitcher

Antonio Senzatela is off to a good start this season for the Rockies (3-0, 2.65 ERA). One would think that he should attract the bulk of the money in this matchup but at time of writing, the Rockies have 74% of the tickets but only 34% of the money.

That tells me that the guys who know what they're doing are angling toward the D'Backs.

Senzatela has been shown numeric improvements so far, but has outperformed his underlying numbers thanks to good luck on batted balls in play and home run rate.

This is all about matchups and for some reason, the Diamondbacks seem to be a bugaboo for the Rockies right-hander.

In 94 at-bats, the Diamondbacks are hitting .330 with a .388 OBP, three home runs and 13 RBI’s against Senzatela.

What I'm Betting

I mentioned earlier that the over has been bet up from 11.5 to 12. I’m inclined to agree with this move given some of the struggles of both starting pitchers in this matchup. The two previous games saw a combined total of 20 runs and 15 runs.

To tell you the truth I don’t expect anything different for today’s game. I’m not sure I trust the Diamondbacks to pull out a win with Weaver on the mound, but I do think there will be some crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

My play will be to back Arizona to get over their team total of 5.5 runs at BetMGM (-129). When this one's all done and dusted, I’m not sure Diamondbacks hitters will be ready to leave Coors Field just yet.

Bet: Diamondbacks Team Total o5.5 (-129). Can also play over 6.5 (+115)

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